Belmont Park Picks and Analysis for June 14th, 2018 by Spencer Luginbuhl(@handi_capper)

Special thanks to Paul for letting me continue my dream of giving my picks as a public handicapper

Use my top 2 picks in multi-race wagers bottom picks are used in filling out tris and exactas vertical wagers.

last week
0 top pick winners
wagered: 18
win/loss: $0 (18) R.O.I
4 Days
wagered: 72
TOP PICK %=19% (7-36)
win/loss: 38.80 (-33.20) R.O.I -46.11

spread race use all three selections in P3/P5
Watch the board
don’t take anything on the win side at under 4-1 as a lot of these horses trainers don’t excel under today’s conditions at Belmont

#6 Native Dawn: A lot of trainers in this race don’t have good stats with first-time two-year-olds at Belmont. Trainer Mark Casse is one of the better ones at 2-22 which is only 9%. Sire Morning Line 17% FTS he is also 20%+ with two-year-olds and maiden special weight races. The dam also wasn’t too bad winning four dirt sprints in her career. Jockey Jose Ortiz has been riding well in limited starts (8) for this barn they are 38% with a substantial 4$ R.O.I.

#7 Damselfly: This family sure does like to win as 6 of 8 siblings have won a dirt sprint, They have as a group a 20% win percentage and also have that same win % in races under 6 furlongs. The sire Bustin Stones is also 17% FTS. Trainer Michelle Nevin in the last five years is 1-20 5% with FTS two-year-olds at Belmont. I’m expecting this one to show speed based off that big bullet three-furlong work.

#4 Classy to D’Bone: Couldn’t find much else to go with wanted to give this Gary Contessa horse a shot Gary pitiful with firsters 0-46 last two years. The dam won 100K although she seemed to like routing and turf more one of the two foals did win at two, and this family is better under 6 furlongs. I need this one to hit the board, and I can’t imagine him being under 20-1 in here so good value if he can sneak into the exotics.

Race 2

#1A Hidden Vow: This one has been racing against our third selection and has just come up missing in the last two races they faced off so why am I making this one my top choice. Leading rider Irad Ortiz sticks again and trainer Jason Servis has been on fire this meet especially on the turf and in route races. This son of Broken Vow loves Belmont Park and has run ok off layoffs in the past. In three tries at this class level, he has never missed the board.

#6 Tiz A Chance: I love Louis Saez on the grass and he to me seems to be a better rider on the grass 16% dirt 11%. There wasn’t much else in here, and I was going for more of a bomber play to spice things up. I believe he has been facing much tougher and is out of form with the three straight declining Beyers, the one time he raced at this level he ran a good third at 11-1. The trainer John Toscano has been cold this meet, but maybe this one can hit the board at a good price.

#9 Mobridge: The 2-1 second choice I would fade this one on any horizontal ticket. The connections are both cold with Jockey Junior Alvarado under 5% in turf races this meet, and in the last ten days Trainer Bill Mott is 1-18 I would like to see them win some before I put a short priced horse of theirs on a ticket. Now back to the horse, excellent races at this level two and three back. All three races run at this class level all have over 80 Beyers. Based on the way the barn is performing and the low odds I’m going to try and use my other two selections on P3/P4/P5.

Race 3
spread race
use all three in horizontal tickets

#1 Vip Nation: Very tough open 32K claiming event with all of our contenders within a point or two of each other this is a very contentious race. Two back this filly had a nice optional claiming allowance win and one of the runners came back to win a 1x allowance race. She hit the gate in her next start, so she has an excuse, and her Beyer came back a mid-six, and we are expecting some improvement off this class drop

#5 Codrington: She comes out of the same races as the top pick. Trainer David donk has decided to go and put blinkers on which will only help the pace as it might get pretty quick up front. Four straight Beyers in the 60’s shows consistency, but I don’t know how much better she will be today with her best only being a 67. She will probably have to run a career best to win today’s race. She also does not have a built-in excuse like our top pick off her last race.

#3 Pure Magic: This Daughter of Creative Cause ships over from New Jersey where she didn’t run too well in a race rained off the grass. Her races in Florida over the winter make her a small player in here, and the price should be right. The jockey-trainer combo is a perfect 2-2 so far in the last two years at Belmont, and Trainer Derek Ryan has won with a grass shipper before 1-17 6%. She had lots of trouble in her race two back, and I feel with clear running she gets a better placement and Beyer fig that makes her a player her today.

Race 4

#3 Pirate’s Treasure: Nice maiden breaker last out for the son of Gemologist, the Beyer puts him right around the par for this level. The place horse came back to win a MSW race so that this colt may be classier then we think. Trainer James Jerkins does well off layoffs and turning horses back 2-6 with a positive R.O.I.

#2 Cavallotto: They might be trying the same pattern that broke this one’s maiden which is turf route turning back into a dirt sprint. The trainer-jockey combo is good, and jock Dylan Davis won 2 on yesterdays card. He will need to improve but he is lightly raced, and we know what most of these other ones are

#4 Truly a Moon Shot: Truly an underneath sort with ten 2nd and thirds compared to just one win. With a top 3 trainer and leading jock, the odds will inevitably become depressed which makes this horse, not a win bet candidate. It seems he fits the 16K level a bit better with back to back seconds.

Race 5

#10 Overnight Success: Should have graduated in that last race and also beat our second choice. There was a comeback winner as well which adds to the appeal. Trainer Jason Servis has been on fire at the meet especially in turf races.

#8 Hangman: This son of Scat Daddy was helped by the pace last time and now gets blinkers added which might not help due to all other speed in the race. There is a bit of a negative jockey change going Franco to junior just because Junior is on such a cold streak right now. Linda Rice is very good with second-time maidens.

#3 Monkeyseemonkeydo: One of the Chad Brown firster’s has one of the only sire’s who wins at 20% at today’s distance. For how good all Chad Browns stats are this one isn’t so good. In MSW races he is 1-6 with 4 hitting the board which is why he’s my underneath play today.

Race 6

#6 Anne’s Song: Doesn’t seem like a lot of horses can run in this MSW heat so I’m looking for a horse that can get out on the front end and control and there is no better jock then Kendrick Carmouche as a good gate jock.

#1 In Denile: This son of Pioneer of the Nile has a fantastic sibling who has won 900K the significant negative and why I won’t put a short price on top is that John Kimmel is 0-13 at the meet so far.

#8 Handle With Care: One of the first time starters that had an excellent sibling 3-9 lifetime. Trainer Bruce Brown not good at all first time out but helpful to see Castellano get the mount.

Race 7

Race 8

Race 9

2 thoughts on “Belmont Park Picks and Analysis for June 14th, 2018 by Spencer Luginbuhl(@handi_capper)

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