Churchill Downs Analysis 5/26/2018
Happy Saturday folks and welcome to my analysis on the Churchill Downs card for Saturday the 26th. The Saturday card is highlighted by the six furlong Winning Colors Stakes which is the 10th race on the card. Let’s start off this Memorial Day weekend with some winners and let it ride!
Race 1: 1 & 1/16th Mile Allowance 10000s
Awesome Gal is my top choice here and she’s fourth highest on the morning line here at 6-1. She actually drops in class here to take on the boys and she comes in off about a month and a half layoff. She’s shown she can win off the layoff before as she showed back in January with a nice allowance win. The big question for her is does she want the distance, but with this field and the ML I’m willing to take a chance on her here. Altito won against similar last out and has the highest last speed rating. He’s shown he can win on an off track which we could possibly see today and he shouldn’t get caught five wide in this small of a field with his post. Etruscan is running first off the claim after a third against similar. He was gaining at the end and he should have a good setup with this field.
Race 2: 6 ½ furlong OC 62500n2x
Parol returns to the dirt here on debut after being claimed for Ben Colebrook. Her lone dirt try was her first race and she had a bad start and ran into some issues there. She’s young lightly raced and 2 for 3 in 2018 and the only loss she was hung wide. This is a race where the horse most likely going to the lead (3-Shanghai Tariff) comes in off a layoff and a sluggish workout. Parol comes in off a blazing workout and I look for her to overtake a slowing Shanghai Tariff in the stretch. Thirteen Songs comes into this one off an allowance win and if you toss the race two back in which she had a bad start that’s two 90 figs in a row. She seems to be trending up and could be very tough here. Nineteenth Street is a filly whose been close against some tough fields and she always seems to be wide. The two post should help her here and she could be dangerous.
Race 3: 1 & ½ Miles Keertana Overnight Stakes 70000
Daring Duchess is the heavy morning line favorite and rightfully so. She gets a drop in class after her fifth place finish in the Bewitch Stakes at Keeneland and she won this race last year. The Ramseys will go for their third straight Keertana and there isn’t much in this field to stop them. Daring Duchess will be a very heavy favorite and a likely single in the early P4. Creative Thinking makes the step up in class here, but can hopefully get a similar trip in which she sits off Daring Duchess and overtakes her in the stretch. But can she hang with her for a mile and a half? I doubt it, but she’d be the one to use as a saver here.
Race 4: 6 Furlong 25000 Clm
Tarpys Zapper comes into this one second off the layoff and after a nice workout. If he can break and get a good position ahead of the two horses to his inside this is his race to lose. He’ll be on the lead and will be very tough to catch. Conquest Hiosilver might’ve needed that last one for a trainer whose winning at 21% with second off the layoff. This horse thrives at this distance and if he can overcome the wide trip should be making a decent move down the stretch. The Money Monster has been a barn traveler with a handful of claims in his previous few races. He’s liked the distance, the track, and he’s lightly raced. Could definitely get a piece of the money here.
Early P4 Ticket: 1,2,6/2,4,6/2/3,9 $9
Going to skip ahead to the late P4 analysis but will list picks for races 5-7.
Race 5: 3-6-4-7
Race 6: 4-5-1
Race 7: 6-9-5
Race 8: 1 Mile MC 50000
Sassy King drops in class and switches over to the turf which I think will be more favorable for him. Trainer Phillip Sims is 25% when running on turf for the first time and I think we get a favorite whose a little overrated here. At 10/1 on the ML could have some great value here. Makeamericagreat is the heavy favorite here and has the best figures for the turf. However, I feel he’s had a few chances where he could’ve won and didn’t get the job done. I’ll use him in P4, but I think he’s a pretty vulnerable favorite. Forbidden Kitten is another in here that drops in class and switches over to the turf. A son of Kitten’s Joy at 15/1 on the ML provides some value here.
Race 9: 7 Furlongs Alw 55000 n1x
Home Base broke his maiden last out at Keeneland and he comes into this one off a great workout. Good trainer/jockey combo recently and he’s had some tough trips. He should get a much better trip against a smaller field and is worth a look here. Souper Smart comes in off a lengthy layoff and he’s showed promise. Last out he lost in a race that featured Bravazo and Lone Sailor. A $325,000 purchase drops in class and shortens up to a sprint. At 10-1 and the rail being pretty generous this meet, worth a shot. Honorable Treasure just missed against similar last out when he got blocked coming down the stretch. If he runs the same trip as last I think he wins here, but I’ll bank on it not happening.
Race 10: 6 Furlong Grade 3 Winning Colors Stakes
Golden Mischief will be tough to beat here as she gets a freshening after a huge effort last out. She absolutely thrives on this distance and has the combo of Geroux/Cox. She’s won against stakes company before and her best wins this one handily. Miss Kentucky runs third off the layoff after a nice win at Churchill last out after being bumped hard and finishing sixth at Keeneland. She should get a nice setup here and she looks geared to run a big number. She needs her best to win this against Golden Mischief, but it’s definitely possible. Treble was a close second to Miss Kentucky last out after being bumped and another whose best could win here. She’s not showing the steady increase that Miss Kentucky is, but one to watch.
Race 11: 1 & 1/16 mile Mdn 53k
Mo Zone had a rough start last out on an off track and he has the connections to win here. He showed decent effort second to last out breaking from a far out post, and with a better post I’d like him more here. But in a race that’s wide open I’ll take him here. Fireball Shot comes into this one off a very lengthy layoff, but looked very good before the break. If he can run similar to his form off this layoff he’s the one to beat here. Elusive Hero comes in off a great workout and has been close in all of his starts. He lost on debut to Triple Crown nominee Machismo and since has just missed. The post hinders him a little here, but one you have to respect.
Late P4: 2,3,5/1,6,7,8/2/3,6,7,9,10 $30