Churchill Downs Analysis & Selections May 20, 2018 By: Aaron Hayes(@ahaze24)

Race 1. 1Mile.™MC 20000Purse $22,000
Selections 2-6-5
(2) Triple Kapalua drops in class has the best jockey in the race with Corey Lanerie. Trainer Albert Stall Jr is winning at 28% and in the money 52% with maiden claimers. He should go straight to the front and speed and class should carry him to a victory.
(6) Stylitude almost wired a similar field but faltered late despite running slow fractions. He’s hit the board 4 times in 6 starts.
(5) You Are Invited ships in from California where his only start was a 7th place finish. He will be coming from off the pace.

Race 2. 1 1/16 Mile.OC 100000n2m Purse $61,000
Selections 3-4-5
(3) Conquest Windycity has the lone early speed in a small field that likes to close from a distance longer than this distance. He beat Mind Your Biscuits & One Liner 3 races back going 7f. He ran a race going 1 mile was at Churchill where he ran 2nd. Didn’t handle the slop in a G2 2 weeks ago at Churchill. He should rebound from that effort.
(4) Guest Suite drops in class from his last start (Ben Ali G3) at Keeneland on April 14th. He ran evenly finishing 3rd by 7 ½ lengths. That distance might have been a little too much and cuts back today. He does have a victory over the surface. Brain Hernandez also has a win at this distance 2 races back.
(5) Honorable Duty is easily the class of the race but is coming off of a 5 month layoff since being walked off during the Clark Handicap at Churchill. His race previous to that, he finished last beating 19 lengths in a 6 horse race. They feel that he’s ready for action, but I don’t know if it’s good enough for a win. Does have a win with Corey Lanerie aboard.

Race 3. 1 1/16 Mile.(Turf)Clm 30000b Purse $28,000
Selections 1A-7-3
(1A) Gorgeous Kitten drops in where he ran 3rd as a favorite in his last race. He’s ran in 4 G3 and a G1 since his last victory. Trainer Mike Maker is winning at 26% with beaten favorites. He had a nice workout I’m May 12th going 4f in 47.4. Look for him to stalk right behind the leader and pull away down the stretch.
(7) Brockton George has s win over the turf surface, breaking his maiden going 1 mile. He returns back to the turf after 4 races. He’ll be coming from well of the pace. He did win his last race in the slop at Oaklawn.
(3) All Right is the lone speed in this race. Despite being off for 5 months, he’s had 5 workouts since April 1st. If he can get away with slow early fractions, it’s possible that he can steal this on the front end.

Race 4. 6½Furlongs.Clm 50000n2L Purse $34,000
Selections 3-7-6
(3) Hubbadahubbadaboom ran a game 3rd after breaking his maiden. He lead but faltered down the stretch. He recorded a Bris speed rating of a 91 in that 7f affair. He cuts back a ½ furlong and should be sitting in a nice stalking position. He also comes out of the red hot barn of Eddie Kenneally who is (9 4-1-1) on the meet
(7) Just a Coinkydink ran evenly in his last race staying 5th the entire 6f. That was the only time in 5 starts that he didn’t hit the board. He makes his 1st start away from Oaklawn for trainer Chris Hartman who has 4 wins in 15 starts. Jockey C.J McMahon will have him forwardly placed.
(6) One River Place broke his maiden going wire to wire at Churchill on May 3rd. He pulled away late and clocked in at 1:10.0 for 6f. Calvin Borel looks for his 3rd win out of 23 starts and trainer Tim Glyshaw looks for his 1st win on the meet.

Race 5. 7Furlongs.™MC 10000 Purse $17,000
Selections 8-3-5
(8) Curlabella chased 2nd until she weakened late in the stretch to finish 4th beaten by 8 ¾ lengths. Jockey Florent Geroux is winning at 27% in sprint races. She cuts back in distance and should improve with her 2nd start on dirt. She can easily find herself on the lead early without too much speed in this race.
(3) Fast Girl ships in from Gulfstream for trainer Dale Romans. She drops in class and cuts back from a mile to 7f. She was bumped at the start was a non factor from there on out. Since her last race in March, she’s had 3 workouts over the Churchill surface.
(5) Puff closed very well while returning back to dirt from the all weather. She’ll be patiently ridden from the back and should enjoy the extra distance.

Race 6. 1Mile.MC 20000 Purse $22,000
Selections 3-4-7
(3) National Flag drops in class for trainer Steve Asmussen. He cuts back in distance and should have a fast track under him. His speed figures have been slow but should improve going forward. Shaun Bridgmohan is in the money 50% in route races.
(4) News Box goes from a sprint to a route. He adds blinkers for the 1st time for trainer Angel Montano, who has run 2nd in 7 starts this meet. Corey Lanerie gets a leg up.
(7) Escalera drops in class and adds distance. He earned a 93 late pace speed rating in his debut. If there is fast early fractions, he’ll be able to pick up the pieces late.

Race 7. 6Furlongs.Clm 10000Purse $20,000
Selections 1A-5-6
(1A) Arch Revenge gets some class relief after a lackluster effort on the slop in his last race. He cuts back in distance from 1 1/16 mile to 6f. There is some good early speed in the race and that can setup well for his off the pace closing style.
(5) Archie ships in from the Nyra circuit. His last 7 races have come at Aqueduct with a win 2 races back. Bill Mott is winning at 25% in claiming races and in the money 51%. Brian Hernandez has 4 times as many wins as the next jockey in this race.
(6) Googleado has some early speed and look for him to be on the lead. He’s a beaten favorite in his try on the Churchill surface. After bobbling at the start, he ran 2nd throughout. With a good start and regular rider, Jon Court, look for him to be a major contender.

Race 8. 1 1/8 Mile.(Turf)Alw 55000n1x Purse $55,000
Selections 6-4-5
(6) Get The Facts closed nicely from off the pace in his 1st start of the year. He drops in class and should be fit for his 2nd race after a layoff. There is some early speed in this race and there could be a nice setup for his closing style. He had a nice workout on May 12 going 5f in 59.4.
(4) Morning Stride drops in class after finishing 3rd at this distance. He adds blinkers for the 1st time under trainer Joe Sharp. He’ll also have a pace to close into, and should improve on his 3rd start after a layoff.
(5) Colour Guard tries the grass for the 1st time. He has 3 wins in 5 starts and has only been off the board once. Trainer Dane Kobiskie is in the money 52% with shippers and winning at 20%. He will be sitting right behind the leader and could have 1st run down the stretch.

Race 9. 7 Furlongs Clm 50000 Purse $44,000
Selections 3-6-2
(3) Royal Squeeze is looking to get trainer Randy Morse his 1st win of the meet. His last win came at Churchill on Nov 12th going 1 mile. He received a Bris speed rating of 100 that day. Julien LeParoux returns back aboard since that victory. They cut back in distance and drops in class.
(6) Stapleton will be on or near the lead when the gates open. He finished 3rd in his last race vs similar on the dirt. He received a Bris speed rating of 92. Look for him to be a nice price in a small field. Brian Hernandez climbs back aboard.
(2) The Gipper had a nice workout on May 14th going 5f in 59.1. He has 5 starts at Churchill with three 2nd places and a 3rd. He’ll be sitting off the pace with Corey Lanerie aboard, who has a victory with him. He won his last race by a neck at Keeneland.

Race 10. 1 1/8 Mile.(Turf)™Mdn 53k Purse $53,000
Selections 4-8-10
(4) Final Reward tries the grass for the 2nd time. Mike Maker and Corey Lanerie have been a hot combo in the last 14 days (6 3-0-1). Look for him to close from off the pace. He had a nice workout on May 12th going 4f in 48.0.
(8) Smart Shot is eligible to improve in his 2nd start since a layoff. He finished 3rd vs similar on the turf in his last race.
(10) Gentle Ruler finished 5th in her last race at Churchill. This is her 1st race since Nov 25th. This beaten favorite has 3 workouts in May in preparation for this race.

 

 

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