Belmont Park Analysis & Selections May 16, 2018 By: Spencer Luginbuhl(@handi_capper)

Use my top 2 picks in multi-race wagers bottom picks are used in filling out tris and exactas vertical wagers.
 
 
RACE 1
4-1-3
#4 Equal Rights: This Chad Brown filly should get the right trip behind the speed up front. Ran a decent speed fig on debut and now drops from a good  MSW race where the runner-up has already come back to win. One of my favorite speed figure angles are horses that haven’t run to par for the race but most second time starters improve around 5-10 points in there the second start that puts her as the only horse that can run to the par for this race. I’m expecting a short price due to connections.
 
#1 Supercommittee: This daughter of The Factor ran well off the layoff. There is some other speed in here so she won’t have the easiest of trips. Over a 20 point improvement from the debut only needs a little more improvement to be a factor in this race. Trainer Richard Violette is usually a little better second off a layoff.
 
#3 Terrabyte: Data Link is a 12% turf sire overall, but in the last five years he is 2-9 which is 22%. The Tomlinson pedigree number came back weak although trainer John Terranova is 10% with all first-time starters that jumps up to 20% with first-time turf starters with an above two dollar R.O.I. in the last five years. Works are consistent but none really wow you I’m looking for this filly to spice up my inter-race exotics.
RACE 2 
2-6-3-7
 
#2 Battle Ready: The last time this gelding came off a layoff he won like a good thing in breaking his maiden. The last two at the allowance levels weren’t pretty, and I’m hoping the layoff and drop in class help this gelding out.
 
#6 Wushu Warrior: five out of the seven in this race is dropping in class, so I decided to take a recent maiden winner. He was life and death to beat state bred maidens but doesn’t need to improve much here to hit the board. Trainer Chris Englehart is very good with last out winners.
 
#3 May Be a Diamond: This six-year-old comes off the bench on an excellent layoff trainer in Charlie Baker. He ran an excellent second in a starter allowance last time coming off of a break. He won as a first-time starter with a gaudy speed figure of 91 then tried allowance and higher rated claimers. if he can run back to one of those two races, he will be around at the wire.
 
RACE 3
5-3-2
 
#5 Lion in Wait: This filly for me will be a single in early multi-leg tickets. She is still lightly raced loves Belmont Park and the distance as she has yet to miss being in the exacta. Trainer Brad Cox is outstanding second off the layoff.
 
#3 Tiz a Kitten: She is the only other runner with back races that I feel match up well with our top pick. She has also been running in the dirt lately, and I feel Turf is the preferred surface.
 
#2 Queenofthechannel: nothing much to say she seems to best of the leftovers as some in here don’t even like the turf she might hit at a significant price in your exacta bets.
 
RACE 4
2-4-5
 
#2 FIve Star Bunt: This gelded son of Posse ran an excellent race to beat maiden 50’s three back, and then I feel got put to far over his head. Linda is good off these type of layoffs, and you get the positive jockey switch to Ortiz.
 
#4 My Pirate: Trainer John Toscano has been off to a putrid start of this Belmont meet which is why I couldn’t put this horse on top. This colt is one of only two with wins at this tough extended sprint distance, and this is one of the more wide open affairs on the card.
 
#5 Hard Way Winner: He ran a good pace aided second to Panama Ed last time out. I’m hoping Jeremiah Engleheart off this claim can help keep this horse’s form going in the right direction.
RACE 5
3-4-2-7
 
#3 My Roxy Girl: She has been running in some nice stakes in her last few don’t like the 6 seconds, but when you have a horse improving over five races in a row you know she is in form. She has never missed the exacta at this distance.
 
#4 Camorra: This lightly raced Pletcher filly has improved after her maiden breaker and has the most upside in the race I like when a horse runs well while dueling on the lead now she needs to stretch out a little further with the new distance.
 
#2 Puffery: she ran right behind our second choice in her last race with her best Beyer speed figure yet. I like that Maragh is not jumping off and trainer Mark Hennig is off to a good start at the meet.
 
RACE 6
12-2-14
 
#12 Elegant Jem: I couldn’t take the #2 who seems like a seconditis horse to me on top. Now, this filly has been routing lately but has been up close to the pace, and I feel she should have no problem being close again even at this shorter distance. With the route she had first off the layoff, she might have a little more kick and staying power down the lane to upset the #2
 
#2 Andretta: I feel this is another single on the card, but she is vulnerable. In turf racing, you need luck along with a good trip and with twelve in the starting gate that can be tough. She gives up a recency edge to our top pick although trainer James Bond is terrific when dropping from MSW to Maiden Claiming.
 
#14 Headfirst: One likeness for my three picks is they are all dropping from MSW to maiden claiming that is the key to beating maiden claiming races. I’m not happy with the post which is why she ends up third in my picks. I do like the slow, steady improvement at two, and she now debuts in the right spot at three.
 
RACE 7
4-6-5
 
#4 La Moneda: This older mare debut at four and has improved in every start since. She has run well fresh before, so the layoff for me isn’t a concern. Other contenders in this race will have to run career races to trouble this daughter of Freud.
 
#6 Out Of Trouble:  Another who was improving towards the end of the year took some time off and debuts in a pretty tough spot. I like she showed she could handle better than claiming horses with that last win and trainer Brad Cox is very good off these layoffs with previous out winners.
 
Table For Six: This mare has a bit of seconditis with 7 seconds compared to two wins so she will only be an underneath player for me. She likes Belmont Park and the distance, and maybe if she is forgotten in the betting, she can help payout a nice exacta.
 
RACE 8
9-3-5-7
 
#9 Mighty Zealous: I love the outside post, and it seems to me he will get the perfect stalk and pounce on the speeds in here. Older horses usually don’t hold there form for long, so I’m hoping to strike while the iron is hot.
 
#3 Runaway Lute: This newly turned four-year-old was one of the better horses at two, but after failing in the G1 Hopeful they have been trying to get him an allowance win to no avail. Love the way he has been working in the morning and although trainer Gary Contessa is not usually good off these types of breaks this son of Midnight lute did win on debut.
 
#5 Rectify: Some positives for this horse trainer Michelle Nevin has been off to a super hot start winning at 41% with 17 starters. This horse has a good win % to underneath placings. He is 0-6 at Belmont which is one big negative.
RACE 9
10-6-5
 
#10 Ripe: Trainer Robertino Diodoro does pretty well first off the claim and drops this one this claim feels like a hope he wins and gets claimed move. This gelding has some good back races that make him a winner today, and he also gets back to fast dirt for the first time in 3 starts.
 
#6 Hidden Bamboo: The other Diodoro runner in this race he has been running low 50 Beyers in all three of his races expect the same here and hope he gets into the trifecta.
 
#5 Gio Lucky: five of seven in the money the drop in class will help also Jose Ortiz gets the call seems like an all or nothing today for the son of Gio Ponti.

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