Churchill Downs Analysis & Selections Sunday May 13, 2018 By: Aaron Hayes(@ahaze24)

Race 1. 1 Mile.Clm 16000 Purse $25,000
Selections 5-3-1

(5) What Everybody Wants closed into some fast fractions to run a solid 2nd at odds of 16-1. He stretches out from 7F to 1 mile and should love the extra distance. Jockey Ricardo Santana Jr returns back aboard and will be making one big run from the back of the pack.
(3) Dos Cuernos has run 2nd twice in 2 starts at Churchill. He has had at least an 84 Bris speed figure in his last 4 races. With his stalking style from right off the leader, he might have 1st run down the stretch and could be hard to catch.
(1) Etruscan won his last race by 1 ½ lengths and recorded a 94 Bris speed rating. He drops in class and looks to be running in good form. He could go straight to the lead since there isn’t much early speed in this race and try to wire this field.

 

Race 2. 5½ Furlongs.™Mdn 53k Purse $53,000
Selections 3-7-4
(3) Torri’s On My Mind is making her debut for Wayne Catalano. He’s winning at 21% with 1st time starters. He had a nice workout on May 5th going 5F in 1:00.2.
(7) Celia’s Song recorded a bullet workout on April 26th going 4f in 47.2. Corey Lanerie hops aboard for her maiden debut.
(4) The Sweetest Taboo breeding suits today’s sprint distance.

 

Race 3. 6 Furlongs.™Clm 30000b Purse $28,000
Selections 6-5-4
(6) Pretty Greeley won by 4 ½ lengths in his last race at Oaklawn. There could be a speed duel upfront which should benefit his off the pace running style. He received a 100 speed rating for his late pace which is the highest by far. His last race at Churchill was a game 2nd place.
(5) Swinging Bridge is shipping in from Parx with 2 wins in 3 races. She’s had some time to freshen up after her last win 55 days ago. She’s had 3 workouts over the surface with her last in 4f in 48.2. Trainer Horacio DePaz is winning at 22% with a winner in their last race.
(4) Krissy’s Manicure has good early tactical speed. She cuts back in distance to 6f where she last won. In her last race at Keeneland, she had the lead late in the stretch but was headed late and finished 3rd. Look for to improve from her 2nd start away from California.

Race 4. 1 Mile.(Turf)™Clm 30000n2L Purse $27,000
Selections 2-3-1
(2) Lil Vie takes the blinkers off where Brad Cox is winning at 43%. He cuts back and distance and tries the turf for his 2nd time. He wont have to go fast early and should sit in a good stalking position until the top of the stretch.
(3) Soft Cheese ran 2nd vs similar on the dirt in his last race. That was his best placed finish since his maiden win 7 races ago. Trainer Kenny McPeek adds blinkers for the 1st time. He returns to the turf for his 2nd time.
(1) Paddys Class almost wired the field in his last race, finishing 3rd by 1 ¼ lengths. He set some very slow fractions and yielded late. Robby Alvarado will look to set a slow pace once again and finish strong down the stretch.

Race 5. 1 Mile.™Clm 16000n2L Purse $20,000
Selections 4-5-7
(4) Ashy Taty drops in class from his last start at Keeneland. He had an awkward start and wasn’t involved on April 21st. The extra distance from 7f to a mile should benefit his running style. His only win has come over the Churchill surface where he broke his maiden.
(5) As Fast As You Can is having his 1st race away from Tampa Bay. Trainer Michael Tomlinson is winning at 18% with shippers. He finished 3rd in his last race at 22-1. The extra furlong will help if he can close into a fast pace.
(7) Medlin has the highest Bris speed rating in the last race. He extends to a mile where the distance might be a little further than his comfort level. If there is a slow pace, it might be harder for him to close into the leaders at a mile.

Race 6. 6 Furlongs.™MC 20000 Purse $22,000
Selections 9-2-3
(9) Lou’s Chardonnay drops in class and should improve with his 2nd start off of a layoff. Fatigue may have been a factor as she gave way down the stretch finishing 4th after leading throughout. She cuts back in distance and had a decent workout on May 5th over the surface. With these unproven maiden, her speed should get her to the wire 1st.
(2) Cape Town drops in class from her last race in the slop at Keeneland. Jockey Adam Beschizza gets back aboard after a 3rd place finish with Joe Rocco in the irons. She will get a fast track for the 1st time and should improve.
(3) Gata Salvaje goes from Maiden 31k to MC 20k so the class drop will help. She gets an upgrade to Corey Lanerie who will be patiently waiting from the back of the pack. Will be interesting to see if she’ll like the surface.

Race 7. 1 Mile.Clm 20000b Purse $22,000
Selections 1-9-7
(1) Power Walker returns to the dirt after a lackluster effort on the turf in his last race. He drops in class where trainer Thomas Amoss is winning at 35% when dropping down 2 classes. He’s also winning at 33% when going from turf to dirt. He’s hit the board in 5 of 9 starts.
(9) Findley Isle won his last start coming from off the turf to a sloppy surface. They look to have a repeat performance away from the grass. Trainer Chris Hartman is winning at 28% repeat claimers and in the money 62%. Sharp workout on May 5th going 5f in 1:00.
(7) Hour City is a Tampa Bay invader who won his last race by a head as a favorite. He recorded a nice workout on May 4th going 4f in 47.2. He has two 2nd places in 2 starts at Churchill.

Race 8. 1 1/16 Mile.(Turf)OC 80000n3x Purse $59,000
Selections 7-3-2
(7) Italian Charm has a morning line of 8-1 but those odds are surely to drop. He finished 3rd on the dirt in his last start at Keeneland. Sat right behind the leaders but couldn’t make any headway. Corey Lanerie is an upgrade at jockey. Italian Charm returns back to the grass where his last victory came. Should be sitting in a comfortable spot right behind the leader and have 1st run down the stretch. Adds blinkers too.
(3) Vettori Kin is looking to figure out the turf in the US in his 4th start on the soil. This South American invader returns back to the grass where 7 out of his 10 starts has come from. Should be sharper in action in 3rd race since layoff.
(2) Derby Champagne drops in class after a G3 attempt at Gulfstream where he was flat running 7th. This will be his 3rd start of the year so the legs should be fresh. His best turf speed is faster than the average winning speed. Brian Hernandez climbs back aboard.

Race 9. 1 1/16 Mile.™Alw 55000n1x Purse $55,000
Selections 8-7-1A
(8) Princess of the Nyl finally broke her maiden 2 races back at Oaklawn and just missed by a ½ length in her last. She gets some class relief and gets Ricardo Santana aboard. I think she’s finding her stride stretching out in distance and will have a big run late coming for home.
(7) Aunties The One ran out of ground late to run 2nd by a length in her last race. She drops in class today and makes her 3rd start since a layoff. Corey Lanerie gets his 3rd ride on her where he has two 2nd places in 2 starts. The 1 1/16 distance should suit her best.
(1A) Skeptic recorded a 91 Bris speed rating in her last race which is the highest from her competitors. She broke her maiden last out in the slop at Keeneland. She sat right behind the leader and edged away late. She had a nice workout on May 4th going 4f in 47.1.

Race 10. 1 Mile.(Turf)Clm 20000 Purse $28,000
Selections 6-8-9
(6) Baratti won his last race on the turf at Aqueduct by a neck. Julien LeParoux looks to be Norm Casse go to rider in his early trainer career. He should be sitting mid pack and have a late soild run to the finish line. He also recorded a 95 Bris speed rating in his last race.
(8) Calm Pacific will have his 2nd start over the Churchill turf this season. He drops in class and gets Brian Hernandez aboard. He has one win at Churchill in 4 starts. That came with Hernandez aboard closing from well of the pace at this same distance.
(9) Abraham is going to be on or near the lead early with his early speed. His last race, with Corey Lanerie aboard, ran 2nd on the dirt at Keeneland. He has the highest Bris speed rating for this distance from his competitors.

 

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