Good morning folks and thanks for stopping by 5MTP. Today I’ll break down the Saturday card for Churchill Downs. I’ll try to spot some value and also highlight the featured race, the Unbridled Sidney Overnight Stakes.
In race 2 we have a 20,000 maiden claimer and on paper the 3-Vandelay looks very tough to beat. Comes into this one after just missing against tougher at Keeneland and he should be a pretty heavy favorite here. I’m going to look elsewhere with the 5-First Recruit. Comes into this one off a disappointing race at Keeneland but it was his first time out. He gets a drop-in class and he also adds Lasix for the first time. He’s 5-1 on the morning line and even in this small field I think he drifts a little higher. I’ll play an exacta here 3,5/3,5,4,7.
Race 3 is a field of 7 going 6 1/2 furlongs on the dirt. I went with the 4-Arcelor here. If he can get the lead the rest of the field shouldn’t catch him. He’d have to revert back to the pace setter style we haven’t seen of late, but with Corey Lanerie aboard it’s definitely possible. I’ll play WPS on the 4 and hope we get something better than the morning line of 3-1.
An optional claimer going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf. I’m going to shoot for a price here with the 6-Youngest Daughter. She comes in second off the layoff and I’d love to see her resort back to her past form and push the lead. She has a win and a second on this track and in a small field like this at 15-1 she offers value. She had a great workout on the 5th at Keeneland and looks like she’s coming into this one fresh. I’ll play her across the board as well as an exacta 3,4,6,7
Race 8 is a maiden for $53,000 going a mile and a sixteenth. The favorite here 3-Fort Peck at 2-1 is very vulnerable. He was coming with the turn last out and just couldn’t get the job done and I’m not sure he wants to stretch out. The 6-Air on Fire comes into this one off a third at Keeneland. It’s his third start off the layoff and Ron Moquett has this horse running his best races as of late. Throw in Ricardo Santana Jr and 7-2 on the morning line. He’ll be my play here. WPS 6
Race 9 is the featured stakes race and we have fillies and mares three years old and up in a five-furlong turf sprint. Turf sprints are by far my least favorite races to handicap to be completely honest. However, here’s my take on the race. The 3-Triple Chelsea has dominated this area of racing for the past couple races. Her only loss in the past four was on a good track and she seems to prefer the firm turf. She’s coming into this one off a top effort in the Giants Causeway and I don’t think she slows down here. She’s my top choice. There are a lot of great horses in this field, but a handful have to overcome lengthy layoffs. Of those most ready to improve? 5-Ruby Nation. She’s shown she can be competitive coming off longer layoffs and she’s a must use here. My top 3 for the featured race of the night: 3,5,9
LOCK OF THE DAY: Race 1-5 Sheikh of Sheikhs
PRICE OF THE DAY: Race 7-6 Youngest Daughter
VULNERABLE FAVORITE: Race 8-3 Fort Peck
Late Pick 4 Ticket: 1,5,6,7/3/3,4,6,7,8,9/3,8,9 $36