Selected Analysis for Keeneland Wednesday April 11th by @JasonNYM

Race 1: 5-6-3


Race 2: 9-3/3C-11

(9)Inda Zone has shown a sharp last workout and appears primed to fire first time out. He is bread well to show early speed (Yes It’s True) and will be our top pick in a wide open 2 year old affair.

(3, 3C) Best You Ever Seen and War Ballad form an entry being sent out by James K Chapman and either would have a shot here as both show nice work tabs for their debuts. Between them our preference is to the 3C War Ballad.

(11) Odie goes out for the always dangerous Wesley Ward and shows solid workouts leading up to his initial start. This one might be our top pick if not for post position 12.


Race 3: 5-8-3


Race 4: 1-8-6

(1) Punked will make her initial start in the USA for trainer Chad Brown after competing over in Ireland at the Curragh as a 2 year old. This type of move is often a successful one for Brown and she will have Jose Ortiz aboard for her first start since August of last year.

(8) Ultima D has been away since finishing far behind the very talented Rushing Fall in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, but had shown ability in her previous races for trainer Wesley Ward including taking a $350k stake race at Kentucky Downs. The distance might be the question for her, but look for Ultima D to be placed near the front  in this event.

(6) Subtle Step looked good taking her debut on this track last October before fading badly in the Wait A While in December at Gulfstream. She now returns off a freshening for Shug McGaughey and the daughter of Smart Strike might be ready to roll in her 2018 seasonal bow.


Race 5: 8-9-7

(8) Out of Hydeing ships in from Oaklawn Park and drops out of special weights into the maiden claiming ranks here. His figures are competitive with this field and may offer a square price.

(9) Ride on Faith ran very well when just missing last time out at Gulfstream Park and should appreciate the extra furlong for trainer Nick Zito.

(7) Vandelay returns to the turf after spending his last two races on the dirt. The son of Mineshaft has figures that fit well with this field and should work out a nice trip right off the early leaders.


Race 6: 8-6-4

(8) Esquisse raced against good competition over in France finishing 2nd to Enlighted  when last seen in September at Saint Cloud. She now changes barns and countries and will make her US debut for trainer Graham Motion in a competitive allowance race. Jose Ortiz has the mount.

(6) Last Promise Kept returns off a 4 month layoff after stumbling badly at the break in the Winter Memories at Aqueduct. Prior to that she turned in a sharp late closing victory over this course at Keeneland and will be dangerous once again in this spot for Tom Proctor.

(4) You Cheated has spent her last two races over the synthetic surface at Turfway Park where she fared well in both races. Her turf form last season was solid and she has the figures to make her competitive in this field for trainer Brian Michael.


Race 7: 1-2-8

(1) Tied Up stretches out and ships in from Delta Downs going first time off the claim for Tom Amoss (26% move). She makes the most sense in this race and attracts jockey Florent Geroux for the ride.

(2) Mrs Rocco cuts back in distance after failing as the favorite last time out at Delta Downs. Two starts back she finished 2nd to our top pick Tied Up and we can see her repeating a similar effort in this spot.

(8) D’Cat has speed and should send from the far outside post under Corey Lanerie. She has a chance to steal this one if she can get away with a soft pace, but  I expect Tied Up to keep her company on the front end before proving to be the better horse in this race.


Race 8: 2-3-6

(2) Mythical Mission makes her seasonal debut after a 5 month break and switches to the Graham Motion barn after being very competitive in stakes company last year at Woodbine. If Mythical Mission is ready to fire off the layoff she should in an ideal stalking position before making her move turning for home.

(3) Brooks House being sent out by Steve Asmussen is stepping up in class here but has displayed enough ability to be competitive with this bunch. More than likely Brooks House will want to sit closer to the back of the field before trying to make one sustained move. A good trip puts her in the mix.

(6) Danceland has been away since last August when she finished 7th in the Riskaverse at Saratoga and returns today for trainer Shug McGaughey and shows a strong work tab. Her best race puts her right there.


As always good luck with your handicapping and betting today ladies and gentlemen. If you have any questions or comments feel free to contact me on twitter @JasonNYM.



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