Keeneland Full Card Analysis on Bluegrass Day

Keeneland full card analysis by Aaron Hayes (@AHaze24)


Race 1.     6 Furlongs Clm  40000

Selections 6-1-2

(6) Louisiana Brown has good early speed and without a doubt will have the lead. He has 4 wins in a row, all by convincing margins. Half of the field is coming off long layoffs so he could steal this on the front end.

(1) Cashel Rock won his last race by driving clear down the lane. He hasn’t ran since Dec. 23 but posted a nice workout on Mar 30th going 4F in 47.4. Should be fit.

(2) Pullings G’s has been on the shelf since July’s run at Woodbine. Mark Casse is hoping this class dropper is fit to win with his most recent bullet workout. He’ll be coming from off the pace.


Race 2.     1 1/16 Mile Clm 40000n2L 

Selections 1-2-5

(1) Soulshine is going to sit right behind the pace and should have first run at the leader. She drops in class and has a nice workout on Mar. 31 at 4F going 47.4

(2) Wholehearted is coming out of a tough bunch in Oaklawn. She gets some class relief and tries the Keeneland surface for a second time.

(5) Tweeting ships in from California off of a 2 month layoff. He drops down in class, however he hasn’t ran over a dirt surface in 10 months. Luis Saez gets the call with trainer Brad Cox winning at 28% with horses that’s been away from 45-90 days.


Race 3.     6½ Furlongs Mdn 74k

Selections 8-4-10

(8) Fairly Honest was bumped at the start and lost ground. I’m looking for her to be more forwardly placed in the event. She has a decent workout on Apr. 2 going 4F in 47.4.

(4) Rizzoli ran 2nd in her only start with 89 Bris speed rating.

(10) East Moon was 2nd best going 6F at Gulfstream on Mar. 11th. She clocked a bullet workout on Mar. 28 going 4F in 48.4


Race 4.     7 Furlongs OC  75000n1x

Selections 8-10-5

(8) Elusive Mischief stretches out in distance from his 5 ½F maiden win by 6 ½ lengths. This is a tough field but his running style of sitting a couple of lengths off the lead suits him well with these.

(10) Smart Remark returns back dirt and has his 2nd race since his layoff. He gets Luis Saez aboard and cuts back in distance. Lost his only start at Keeneland by a neck with 92 Bris speed rating.

(5) Prolific comes in off of a 6 month layoff from his debut win at Belmont. It looks as if he may get the lead, but it’ll be interesting to see if the rust kicks in.


Race 5.     1 1/8 Mile (Turf) Alw  76000n1x

Selections. 8-6-4

(8) Loving Empire is coming off a well timed ride to win by a head in his last start. He will be coming from the back of the pack once again. The extra distance might help and gets an up and coming jockey in Adam Beschizza.

(6) Evasive Storm ships in from Tampa Bay and has been fairly consistent. I think he’ll be more forwardly placed and could get first run on the closers when the turn for home.

(4) Church Social has the most class in this race. He’ll be closing from well off the pace. His 3 month layoff is a bit of a concern and hasn’t won since breaking his maiden in Nov. 2016


Race 6.     7 Furlongs Commonwealth S.Grade III. Purse $250,000

Selections 6-5-3

(6) Limousine Liberal is the obvious class of the race and will be the post time favorite. He’s coming off of a 4 month layoff, but that shouldn’t be much of a problem. He’s had some good workouts and is familiar with the Keeneland surface.

(5) Conquest Windy City won his last race going gate to wire winning by a head at Gulfstream. Look for Jose Ortiz to have him on the lead once again. He received a high Bris speed rating of 101 at 7F on Feb 9th and could put another big effort in.

(3) Westwood has won his last 2 races in a row at Aqueduct. One going wire to wire and the other he sat 2nd, grabbed the lead in the stretch and held off his foe to win by a head. He’s never been off the board in 6 career starts.


Race 7.     5½ Furlongs (Turf) Shakertown S. Grade II. Purse $200,000

Selections 13-7-1

(13) Disco Partner last race was the Breeders Cup Turf sprint where he finished 3rd by a ½ length. Even though he hasn’t run since November, he’s been working out since Feb with anticipation for this race. Irad Ortiz is back aboard where he has 5 wins on Disco Partner.

(7) Will Call has good early tactical speed. Shawn Bridgmohan is his only jockey of record with 4 wins out of 7 starts and only out of the money once. He will definitely be a factor when they turn for home.

(1) Frisky Magician is in his toughest race to date. He steps up big time in class, and gets world class rider Ryan Moore. His stalking style from the rail gives him a good chance to pull a major upset.


Race 8.     7 Furlongs Madison S. Grade I. Purse $300,000

Selections 12-2-3

(12) Finley’sluckycharm had a prep race at the Fairgrounds to prepare for this grade 1 where he finished 2nd in a 5 ½F sprint. His race previous to that was the Breeder’s Cup sprint at 7F. He didn’t fair to well finishing 9th, 1 of his only 2 races not to hit the board. He’s fit for this while some other contenders are coming off long layoffs. His early speed will have him in contention.

(2) Lewis Bay is coming off a 2nd place finish in the Royal Delta G3 at Gulfstream. She shortens up to 7F and her early speed can easily wire this field. She’s only been off the board once in her career, and ironically it comes at the 7F distance.

(3) Salty won her 1st. race back after a 6 month layoff. She returns to the 7F distance where she broke maiden. With a hot pace and some contenders coming off layoffs, she can close from off the pace. She had a decent workout on Mar 30th.


Race 9.     1 1/16Mile Central Bank Ashland S Grade I. Purse $500,000

Selections 1-2-5

(2) Monomoy Girl is only a neck away from being undefeated in 5 starts. She hit the gate and was last at the start but easily rallied passed her foes to win by 2 ½ lengths. In this short field, Monomoy Girl will probably go to the lead from the rail. She has the highest Bris speed rating amongst these and notched a bullet workout on Apr. 1 going 4F in 47 flat.

(2) Eskimo Kisses rallied from last only to come up short by a head in her last start. She likes to come from well off the pace with a late kick down the stretch. That style might not be enough to win but she can hit the board.

(5) Andina Del Sur makes her dirt debut. Transferring her form to the dirt is a question. Her other 4 starts on the turf has came from rallying off the pace with a solid kick. With only one speed horse in this short field, the distance she has to make up might be too tough of a task.

2017 Stakes Winners

Race 10.     1 1/8 Mile ToyotaBlueGrassS.Grade II. Purse $1,000,000

Selections 10-9-4

(10) Free Drop Billy has the most experience out of these 3 year olds with 6 graded stakes races under his belt. He won the Breeders Cup Futurity at Keeneland so the surface and distance shouldn’t be a problem. He ran 3rd in the Gotham with Dylan Davis aboard. Irad Ortiz gets the assignment and trainer Dale Romans is winning at 29% with beaten favorites. Looks for Free Drop Billy to rally off the turn with a big kick down the stretch.

(9) Tiz Mischief has some decent workouts after a disappointing 5th in the Tampa Bay derby. He returns back to Keeneland where he broke his maiden from off the pace at a 1 1/16 mile. Jockey Corey Lanerie hops in the irons for the 1st time. He’ll be patiently waiting from off the pace until they turn for home.

(4) Kanthaka bobbled at the start, but had no chance of catching McKenzie or Bolt D’Oro in the San Felipe. He did make a solid move around the turn but couldn’t sustain it and finished a game 3rd. Julien Leparoux has run huge in previous Bluegrass Stakes.


Race 11.     1 Mile (Turf) Mdn $74k

Selections 5-4-6

(5) Preacher Power closed from off the pace to finish 2nd by a ½ length. Stretches out an extra 1/16 from a mile. Had a bullet workout on Mar 22nd

(4)  Vegas Kitten failed as a favorite in his last race. I look for this Chad Brown trainee to rebound in his 2nd start.

(6) Course Correction makes his debut for Chad Brown. He has some decent work tabs with some bullets.

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