Gulfstream Park Full Card Analysis–Florida Derby Day

Full card analysis of Gulfstream Park card, Saturday March 31, 2018 by Vinny from Real Dynasty Picks

Race 1: 4,9,6

(4) Noble Drama -Noble Drama is stepping up in class today and stretching out to 7F, but has improved over all 3 career starts here at Gulfstream Park, including a 9-1/2 length win last time out on March 9th with Tyler Gaffalione who is back in the Irons again today.

(9) Reason to Soar has not run since last July at Saratoga, but has faced much tougher in the past and gets Jose Ortiz riding today. Trainer George Weaver is only 2/18 this meet, but 6 more have finished in the money which is roughly 44% in the money.  I would include this one in your exotic wagers and should have solid value come post time.

(6) Star Juancho is stretching out today and based on past races I don’t think it is a positive for him.  He did finish nicely on March 14th here in a win, but the pace fell apart in that race and was quick.  I think he is too good compared to the rest of this field not to include on exotic wagers, but he is too beatable to key on top so I will try and beat him.

Race 2: 11,9,7

(11) Momenta Kat has consistently run faster then the rest of this field.  She has finished 3rd in all 3 starts so far in 2018.  Trainer Angel Rodriguez is 30% this meet at Gulfstream and is 56% in the money this meet.  I would use Momenta Kat on all tickets involving race 2.

(9)Ballylin failed as the favorite last time out at this distance here at Gulfstream against a similar field.  The jockey change to Irad Ortiz is a positive in this spot, but her breeding suggests that she would do her best running going longer than this.

(7) Casa Bonita is dropping into Maiden Claiming for the first time for trainer Jason Service who is 26% in 2018 with this move.  Negative on her is that in both career starts she has not done much running, and Servis is only 1/19 this meet.  She should be a big price in this field though, so for value I would keep this one on your tickets if you can.

Race 3: 5,6,12

(5) Solve goes out for Jorge Navarro who is 22% this meet and has a race this year back on January 18th that would be more than good enough to beat this field today.  Ran a poor race last time out against tougher but I am willing to look past it.

(6) Model Citizen finished 2nd at nearly 32-1 back on March 7th, but not using as my top choice as that was Model Citizen’s best race in over 2 years, so I am not too confident that a repeat effort will happen.  This is a weaker field so I am not tossing completely, but wouldn’t key this one on top.

(12) Big Boy Bruno is on the far outside which may be a bigger problem as in his last 3 races Big Boy Bruno has drifted out.  He has finished in the money in 5/6 races so I would use underneath in Exotics wagers.

Race 4: 1,3,4

For anyone who was following Dynasty back on March 3rd knows that both Nick and I are very high on (1) Therapist.  He ran a solid 3rd in the G3 Palm Beach off the layoff with adding lasix for the first time.  2nd time lasix and 2nd off the layoff makes me very high on Therapist again today.

(3) Speed Franco ran a winning race in the G3 Palm Beach, but  got caught at the wire.  Today he is cutting back to 1 mile where he is 3-3 in his career.  I am expecting Speed Franco to be the favorite today, and while I am trying to beat him with Therapist on top, I would include Speed Franco on all of your tickets involving race 4.

(4) Salmanazar is stretching out for the first time but has a pedigree that fits this 1 mile distance on the turf.  He will need to show improvement, but the Johnny V/Todd Pletcher Combo is always dangerous, and with Therapist and Speed Franco in this field, Salmanazar should have some value come post time.

Race 5: 1,8,5

(1) Amertume ran a very solid 2nd in the G3 Herecomesthebride to a very good turf filly named Thewayiam.  She is cutting back in distance today which I am not always a fan of on turf, but being on the rail she should get a ground saving trip.

(8) Best Performance is going to be the favorite here.  She is coming off a 2nd place finish in the Breeders Cup Filly’s JV Turf.  While she did finish 2nd in that race, she doesn’t seem to like to win as she has 5 2nds out of 6 career starts.  It won’t surprise me if she does win, and I would use her on all tickets involving this race, but she is a beatable favorite here today.

(5) Got Stormy is stepping up in class today, but I like that she has a win at this distance over the track last time out, and that she has shown improvement for trainer Mark Casse over her 3 career starts.  Anyone who has followed Dynasty knows that I am not the biggest Mark Casse fan, but one thing he does better than most trainers is Filly’s going 1 mile on the turf.  She also posted a bullet workout on March 23rd which tells me she is ready to run. If you have room on your tickets or are looking for some value outside the top 2, Got Stormy should run solid here.

Race 6: 4,5,11

(4) Honey Hearts will most likely be the favorite in this race based off of her past speed figures compared to the rest of this field, but being 0/9 in her career is not too enticing to use on top.  I am using her on top because  of how weak the rest look here, but she is far from a solo play.  If you are playing this race in your multi race tickets, I would recommend using her, along with a handful of others in here. This is one of those races where the ALL button can be your best friend.

(5) Miss Marisol is running without Lasix in her 2nd career start which while uncommon is not always a negative.  She did finish 3rd in her debut without lasix, and should show improvement today.  I am keeping her on all my tickets involving race 6.

(11) Remington Rose draws an outside post which I am not too big on here at Gulfstream, but did improve in her 2nd career start to finish 2nd, so I am not ruling out that she can hit the board again today.

Race 7: 1,5,7

(1) Special Trip finished 3rd by 1 length to Amertume last time out who is my top selection in Race 5.  She is breaking from the inside today which should help her save some ground as her last 2 races she has been wide turning for home.  If she can keep the rail today I think Special Trip will find the winners circle.

(5) Sweet Lady is a first time starter for Chad Brown who is always dangerous on the turf and while Sweet Lady has a great pedigree for this 1-1/6th turf distance, her workouts are not super impressive for me to use her over experienced horses here. She also gets Julien Leparoux who I am not a fan of on first time starters.  Would not surprise me if she came late to grab a piece which is why I have her placed 2nd, but I would be a bit surprised if she wins here.

(7) Legend Emma ran 2nd to Got Stormy who is my third choice in Race 5 in her debut race.  She is stretching out today which is concerning as she gave up the lead in the stretch, but she did hold well for 2nd.  If she gets loose on the lead, lone speed is always hard to reel in, but after giving up the lead in her debut, Legend Emma should be used as a saver if needed and underneath to round out exotic wagers which is why I placed her third.

Race 8: 2,5,4

(2) Always Dreaming is trying to become the first Kentucky Derby winner to win a race after the Kentucky Derby since American Pharoah back in 2015.  He ran very poorly in his 3 starts after the Kentucky Derby last year, but he is back at Gulfstream today where he is 2-2 in his career including last years Florida Derby.  On paper Always Dreaming looks like he might get loose on the lead and if he does that he should have no problem winning at this 1 mile distance.

(5) Tommy Macho ran huge last time out in the Fred Hooper G3 and has a career record of 5-3-0-2 at Gulfstream which is why I have him 2nd today.  Tommy Macho should have some value come post time with Always Dreaming and Irish War Cry in this field, and has never missed the money here at Gulfstream which is perfect for exotic wagers.  Will need to run another huge race to beat this field, but should get a nice stalking trip outside of Always Dreaming so winning is not entirely out of the question.  If you aren’t keying Always Dreaming here, than Tommy Macho should be on your tickets for race 8.

(4) Irish War Cry was the beaten favorite last time out at this distance and personally I am not sure why they are running him at 1 mile again.  Not only do I think Irish War Cry wants to go longer, but I think he has more of a turf stride than a dirt one.  I expect him to run another solid race, but will need some help if he is going to win here.  I would use him on saver tickets and on the bottom of exotic wagers, but I would not use Irish War Cry on top if you don’t have to here.

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Race 9: 5,6,2

(5) CC Rider had a terrible start on the dirt in his debut, but the winner Hofburg is running later in the Florida Derby.  His pedigree says that he should prefer the turf, and with adding Lasix today he should improve off his dirt race.  Michael Matz hasn’t had many starters this meet, but is 20/44 with horses finishing in the money with 18% win so although CC Rider will be a price, he fits well here.  Also Johnny V in the Irons is always a positive.

(6) Dawood was caught wide in his debut on the turf here on March 10th, but is upgrading Jockeys to Luis Saez today who has had an excellent meet.  Trainer Bill Mott has been sending out runners in the past couple of weeks and with Dawood being a 675K purchase by Zayat, I don’t think Dawood will be a maiden for long.

(2) Rhode Island is stretching out today and adding blinkers which I like.  In his debut, Rhode Island made up 5 lengths in the stretch after breaking poorly and with the added distance today he should improve.

Race 10: 9,6,3

(9) Outplay is making his 4 year old debut, and his last 2 loses came to West Coast who is the Favorite in the Dubai World Cup today.  Outplay is cutting back today in distance, but with his front running style I think he will be in contention when they turn for home.

(6) Fayeq is adding blinkers today and if he find his form from last July he will be dangerous here.  His recent workouts have been solid and he will have no problem getting the distance.  He is morning lined at 12-1, but I highly doubt Fayeq will go off with double digit odds today.

(3) Weekend Hideaway is a warrior, making his 8 year old debut.  and while his form as of late has not been that of the Weekend Hideaway of the past, he still fits perfectly against this field.  He should get a solid pace to sit off with Outplay running, and ran 3rd in a similar race last year here at Gulfstream.  I would keep him on your exotic wager tickets, but if he goes off as the favorite 5-2 I would try and beat him on top, as he is not the same horse he once was.

Race 11: 2,3,10

(2) Lull is making her 4 year old debut today and I am a huge fan of this one.  She adds Jose Ortiz today which is a plus on the turf, and has run against much tougher her entire career.   Lull will probably be the favorite or at worse 2nd choice, but is one that needs to be on your tickets as if she improves off her 3 year old form she will be tough to beat.

(3) Stormy Victoria is stretching back out to a mile today and with the amount of speed in this field she should get a great pace to close on.   Stormy Victoria like Lull is trained by Christope Clement and between the two of them I think one of them will find the winners circle.  I took Lull on top as I have been a huge fan of hers for 2 years now, but will use both on all tickets.

(10) On Leave beat Stormy Victoria in her last race back in December, but her form in that race was her 2nd straight race showing a decline of form.  With that trend combined with the outside post I don’t think she is going to win today, but for exotic wagers I wouldn’t rule her out.  She also loses Jose Ortiz, but does gain his brother Irad, but I prefer Jose on the turf.

Race 12: 3, 4, 9

(3) Take Charge Paula has finished in the top 2 in 7/8 career races including 2-1-1-0 in 2018.  She ran 2nd last time out against a similar field and should improve in her 3rd start of 2018. Today she gets a jockey upgrade to Jose Ortiz and with that I think she gets the job done today.

(4) Cache is making her 3rd career start today and also should improve off her 5th place stakes debut last time out.  She switches jockey’s to Julian Leparoux which I am not a fan of, but I think Cache is too talented of a horse not to run in the money so I will include her on my exotic wagers.

(9) Princess Warrior is switching back to dirt today after a failed attempt in a turf stake at this distance. I am not a huge fan of the turf to dirt switch, but she does have solid dirt form in the past and does get a jockey upgrade to Irad Ortiz.  She will need to take a big step forward today to win, but is another one like Catche that should be used in Exotic wagers.

Race 13: 8,7,1

(8) Sadler’s Joy dominated here on March 3rd, and today is against a similar field.  He has emerged as one of the top distance Turf Colts in North America and needs to be on all tickets involving race 13.

(7) Bigger Picture won his 7 year old debut, and with Jose Ortiz back in the Irons I am confident that he will be a big factor in this race.  He has a career record of 6-2-1-2 at the 1-1/2 distance.  If you aren’t confident in Sadler’s Joy, Bigger Picture should be the next horse used here.  I will include both on all of my tickets involving this race 13.

(1) Markitoff took a huge step forward last time out even though he finished 5th but it was by less than 2 lengths to Sadler’s Joy.  He is going to be a price, but a longshot that has a very solid chance of finishing in the money against this field at this distance.  He has improved a lot in all 3 starts in 2018 for Michael Maker and I am including him on my exotic wagers involving race 13.

Race 14: 1,5,6 The $1,100,000 Grade I Xpressbet Florida Derby

(1) Strike Power ran a solid 2nd in the Fountain of Youth and was roughly 3 wide throughout.  Today he has the rail and should be able to save ground.  Also based on his recent works, Strike Power looks like he got a lot out of the Fountain of Youth and is ready to take a step forward here today.  With Both Audible and Promises Fulfilled wanting the early lead, I think Strike Power will get a perfect stalking trip and at his ML of 4-1 I am taking a chance that he can pass them both.

(5) Storm Runner made a middle move in the Fountain of Youth, then seemed to throw his head when moving towards the rail which killed all of his momentum.  With a new Jockey I think Storm Runner gets a better trip and it will show in the results.  He was the more bet of the two Romans Horses in the Fountain of Youth, but today he will be the less bet as Promises Fulfilled will probably be the 2nd choice.  Storm Runner is morning lined at 20-1 which I doubt he goes off at, but he is well worth a play in Exotic Wagers even if he gets bet down a bit.

(6) Catholic Boy could easily win this race with the amount of pace.  He just missed in the Sam F. Davis as he failed to pass Flameaway, but with his stalking running style has been in every one of his 5 career starts.  He will be overlooked and should have some value in this field and I like Catholic Boy to round out some of the exotic wagers personally, but if you aren’t sold on any one horse in this field or using a few here to end Multi-Race tickets, I would make sure Catholic Boy is included.

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