Our thoughts on the San Felipe & Gotham Stakes

8 have entered the San Felipe Stakes, everyone is assuming it’s a two horse race between McKinzie & Bolt D’Oro. We break the race down for you.

1-Bolt D’Oro he was last seen 126 days ago in the BC Juvenile where he finished 3rd at .70 ~ Bolt has had 4 lifetime races 3 of them victories ~ 2 of his 3 wins in GR 1 stakes ~ his bris figures have been 91-94-105-99 ~ his work on March 5th 4f :46.2 tells me he will run a big one ~ Javier Castellano rides replacing Nakatani

2-Lombo coming into this with a 2 race win streak both of them at SA ~ his top bris figure is 88 ~ appears to be heading in the right direction but is he as good as the top 2? ~ we shall see today

3-Ayacara trained by Keith Desormeaux & ridden by his brother Kent ~ ran 2nd to Lombo in his last ~ was blasted by Bolt in the Frontrunner ~ looks up against it today

4-McKinzie this guy is the Derby Media’s #1 choice currently for the KY Derby ~ trained by Bob Baffert ~ he was placed first in the GR 1 Los Al Cash Call Futurity making him 3/3 lifetime ~ his bris figures have been 100-100-104 ~ hasn’t raced in 63 days ~ in the Sham he only beat 5 others & the Cash Call beat only 4 others ~ Mike Smith stays aboard

5-Aquila just broke his maiden in his last start earning a 93 speed figure ~ is 2-1-1-0 at SA ~ goes way up in class today I just don’t see him being competitive in this field

6-Calexman lone win was on turf ~ has some early lick but like Aquila I just don’t see him running well today

7-Peace has 1 win in 4 lifetime starts ~ was thumped by Lombo & Ayacara in the Lewis ~ they are taking the blinkers back off ~ has the looks of an also ran

8-Kanthaka today will be his first attempt past 7f ~ coming into the race on a 2 race win streak ~ 2/2 at SA ~ 99 is his career best bris figure & it was earned in his last start which was the GR 2 San Vincente ~ if the race completely falls apart he could be the one who picks up the pieces

Final Analysis: McKinzie will most likely be the post time favorite, Bolt just doesn’t get the respect I feel he deserves. Last week Good Magic was the “flavor” of the week & melted in the Florida sunshine. I do see Bolt bringing his A game & will win the race. Lombo is a interesting long shot the light bulb has appeared to be turned on in his last 2 races. I’m expecting a very big effort out of him today. Kanthaka is a must use underneath

Betting Strategy: exacta: 1/2,8 ~~ triple: 1/2,8/2,4,8 ~~ superfecta: 1/2,8/2,4,8/2,3,4,5,8 ~~ will play 2 saver bets exacta: 2/1,8 triple: 2/1,8/1,4,8

 

9 are set to run in the Gotham Stakes this Saturday at Aqueduct. Here is our analysis:

1-Dial Operator one of 2 in the race who isn’t triple crown nominated other one is 8-Nine Route ~ is 2/2 lifetime never has raced past 5 1/2f ~ his bris figure have been 77 & 91 ~ one of the 2 trained by Jason Servis ~ if he can stretch out could be a factor in this race

2-Cove Blue has only his maiden win to talk about ~ one of the 2 Dale Romans trainees ~ appears way over his head today

3-Beautiful Shot has been running in California now ships east where he avoids McKinzie & Bolt D’Oro ~ trained by Keith Desormeaux has won 2/3 lifetime races ~ hasn’t run in 119 days ~ his best game is coming off the pace ~ bris figures have been 82-92-85 ~will be using underneath

4-Whereshetoldmetogo has 8 career races winning 3 of them ~ could round out the superfecta but don’t see him in the top 3

5-Firenze Fire winner of 4/7 lifetime starts one of them at Aqueduct ~ the other Jason Servis trainee ~ he has a GR 1 victory to his credit winning the Champange at Belmont last October ~ got really thumped in the BC Juvenile coming in 7th beaten 20 lengths ~ in his 2 starts this year he has a win & second place finish ~ not sure what to expect out of him

6-Free Drop Billy scratched out of the FOY to run here ~ trained by Dale Romans ~ has a GR 1 victory to his credit winning the Breeders Futurity at Keeneland last October ~ he was thumped in the BC Juvenile coming in 9th beaten by 29 lengths ~ his lone start this year was in the Holy Bull where Audible beat him by 5 1/2 lengths he earned a 99 bris figure ~ could be the post time favorite but won’t be our top pick

7-Old Time Revival has just his maiden win to his credit & has been racing in Maryland ~ will be just off the pace could hang around longer than expected ~ has been working very well for this race

8-Nine Route is 3/3 on dirt & at Aqueduct ~ is the lone NY bred in the race ~ his career high bris figure is 88 ~ will be on the lead but don’t expect him to be around once the real running begins

9-Enticed 2 victories out of 4 lifetime starts ~ flopped in the Holy Bull as the $1.90/1 post time choice ~ Junior Alvarado jumps back on for the ride ~ another one in here with many question marks

Final Analysis: very tough race to figure out most of the contenders have more questions than answers. I’ve landed on 1-Dial Operator he’s got lots of upside compared to the others in here, will be a square price as well. Will save with 9-Enticed

Betting Strategy: W/P 1-Dial Operator exacta: 1/3,6,7,9 triple: 1/3,6,7,9/3,5,6,7,9 Saver exacta: 9/1,3,6,7 triple: 9/1,3,6,7/1,3,5,6,7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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