12/2/2017- Cigar Mile Day at Aqueduct Picks/Analysis

Race 1 – 2,5,4

(2) Memories of Peter on paper looks as if he can be the lone speed which is always dangerous.  He is coming out of a solid effort in a G3 where he was caught late going a bit farther then this, but only lost by a length.  While I am generally not a fan of the cutback on turf, most of this field is cutting back, and with being the lone speed Memories of Peter should be to right there at the finish.

(5) Black Sea (Fr) should be the favorite in here, but in my opinion he lacks a big turn of foot which is why I put him as my 2nd choice as I do not think he could catch the (2) if the (2) is lone speed.  He is too dangerous to be left off tickets, but between the cut back, and just being a one speed type of horse I am going to try and beat him with the win ticket.

(4) Toughest ‘Ombre is stretching out today which I like as he does have a more closing style, but he has not finished in the money in all 6 starts this year so hard to use him confidently to win which is why I have him 3rd.  He will need a hot pace up front to win, but for his odds he will be worth using underneath in exotic plays.  If you have the bankroll to use him in the pick 5, he is one I would put on my ticket just in case.

Race 2-1,8,4

(1) Lady Rullah has been compromised at the start in her past 2 races, but her last race with a clean start was a win and that effort would be good enough to beat this field today so I am using her on top.  She has bobbled at the start 3 times in her 5 career starts, so she does have gate issues so I would not single her on top.

(8) Woundwithhereyes is going from turf to dirt, but if her form on turf translates back to dirt she will be tough here at a decent price.  Her last race on the Aqueduct main track was 11 starts ago, but that was a 2nd place effort.  This is a very weak field, so taking a shot with her on my multi tickets and in my exotics.

(4)Leah’s Dream will most likely be the pace in this field which in a weaker field like this is always to dangerous to leave off tickets.  In her last race she coughed up the lead close to home so the added distance today may not be her friend.  I would use her cautiously on tickets and may only include her on Trifectas and Superfectas, but to start your pick 4 and on your pick 5’s I would use her.

Race 3 – 5,9,1A (Off Turf- 11,6,10)

(5) Buddy’s Tiz has run at the 1 mile distance in his last 3 starts and has won 2 and finished 2nd in the other so I am taking this as a sign that this is his distance.  He will need to improve a few points speed figure wise to beat this bunch, of of the horses in this field I think Buddy’s Tiz has been running the best as of late so taking a shot with him on top.

(1A) Any Questions is dropping down in class a bit and looks very dangerous in here, but in a claiming race I will try and beat the likely favorite on the win tickets.  He won a higher classed claiming race at this distance at Aqueduct at the beginning of November which makes him a must use here.  I would include Any Questions on all of your tickets involving this race.

(9) McIlroy always seems to come up short so I have him 3rd in here.  He has not won since October of 2016 and has had no excuses in a few of his closer finishes.  He should be on your tickets today though as all 6 of his career wins have come at this distance, so if he is ever going to win again, it is at 1 mile.  Also for exotic wagers, McIlroy has finished in the money in 10 of his 18 life time starts at this 1 mile distance.

Race 4 – 4,1,7 (Off Turf-13)

(4) Forty Winds is a first time starter sired by Forty Tales who I was always a fan of as he was a Graded Stakes winning sprinter on the dirt.  The Dam Sea Wind has produced a turf sprint winner already, so it is not out of the question that Forty Winds will run well today.  Her last 5f work in 1:00 to me looks promising so as long as she gets away from the gate clean I am hopeful that she will be a big factor in this race.

(1) Iridescent Morn is a 2 year old first time starter for Mark Casse which for those  who have followed Real Dynasty Picks in the past know that I generally do not bet 2 year old’s on the rail or on the far outside, and that I don’t bet Mark Casse non stakes horses, but Iridescent Morn looks like she has the potential to be a good one for the connections. so I will include her on my tickets.  Her last workout of 3f in :36 is amazing compared to the rest of this bunch.  If she has that type of speed breaking away from the gate she will be tough to beat today.

(7) Nazay is making her 3rd lifetime start today and has shown improvement over her first two starts so I am expecting another improvement today.  I have her 3rd as she is changing jockey’s for the 3rd time which isn’t a great sign, but she does end up with Jose Ortiz who is always dangerous on the turf in New York.  If you are looking for a horse with experience to play here, I think Nazay is the best choice of the runners who have run before.

Race 5 – 2,3,1

(2) Vintage Matters has been running well against much better the this field so I am taking him on top today.  He will need a bit of a pace upfront, but looking at this field he should get it.  He is cutting back in distance which I am usually not a fan of, but in his 6 races with J. Velazquez in the irons he is 1-2-2 in which he was never more then 3 lengths behind the winner at the finish.  I fully expect him to be a major player late in this race.

(3) Minsky Moment only has 1 turf start under his belt, but it was a very solid 2nd place effort.  He does change jockey’s to Javier today which is a bit concerning because I do prefer one of the Ortiz brothers on turf, but if he improves off his only turf start he is another one who should be dangerous late in the race.

(1) Follow the Signs is first off the claim for Steve Asmussen after being with Chad Brown and is coming off an impressive 11 length win at Saratoga.  He is stepping up in class which is why I placed him 3rd, but he keeps Rosario in the irons even with the trainer change which is a good sign in my opinion.  He should show speed early breaking from the inside and with the (2) and the (3) being more of the closing type, Follow the Signs should have no issue setting the pace in here.

Race 6 -2,5,1

(2) Highway Star right off the suicidal pace that Unique Bella set in the BCFM Sprint which ended poorly.  I am throwing this race out completely.  She is 3-3 at Aqueduct and is 4-4 at this 1 mile distance.  With both the (1) and the (4) wanting the lead early, she should get a great set up.

(5) Verve’s Tale is one of those horses that you know exactly what you are going to get when she runs and she is finally back running at a class where she can excel against.  She does add J. Velazquez in the Irons today for the first time, but like Highway Star, she should get a solid pace to stalk.

(1) Jamyson ‘n Ginger is making her 2nd start for Chad Brown since being moved to his barn and with the year Chad Brown has had I wound not toss her.  I used her 3rd because I think the (4) has enough early speed to pressure her early, weakening her for the stretch run, but if the (4) is not fast enough to go with her early, she may take this group all the way around.  I would use the 1 on all of your multi-race and exotic tickets as well as the (2) and (5).

Race 7 -5,4,11

(5) Silverado Mist is cutting back in distance today which I normally am not a fan of, but in her 3 career starts, she has been part of the early pace before tiring.  She also gains Jose Ortiz in the Irons which is always a plus in New York.  She will most likely be the favorite, but of the runners who have experience she looks to be the best of the group.

(4) Rachel’s Blue Moon is going to be a price.  She is 12-1 Morning Line and I think she will only climb from there, especially with M. Garcia in the irons who hasn’t won a race this meet.  But even with all of that she lands as my 2nd choice in here because she is sired by Bodemeister which means she should have the stamina to make it around for this 6f distance.  She may need a race which is why I placed her 2nd, but this doesn’t seem to be the strongest group of Filly’s so taking a shot underneath my top selection with a price.  I would only use her underneath of exotics, I am not expecting her to win.

(11) Scatback in all 4 of his career starts has been 1 paced throughout, but he has hit the board twice which is why I placed him 3rd.   He is another one that I don’t think can win here, but for underneath in Exotics I think he is a must play.

Race 8 – 1,5,3

(1) Daisy has looked very impressive in both career starts, and on paper should be able to clear this field early and set the pace.  Jockey Carmouche is best in my opinion when he is on speed horses from the inside, so taking a shot here that he can guide Daisy to a front running win.

(5) Indy Union broke her maiden in impressive fashion last time out and with her breeding I think the distance of 1-1/8th today is perfect for her.  Her last start in which she won by 7 was her only main track start that the main track was not sloppy, so although she does have 4 career races under her belt, I am expecting an improvement off her last effort today.  If (1)Daisy can’t hold the lead, she is my horse who I think can run her down.

(3) Wonder Gadot finished an impressive 6th in the BcJuvFil last month and had traffic issues in the 13 horse field.  She does attract Johnny V today which is why she ended up 3rd on my list, but she will be the favorite.  She has the breeding for this distance and for the dirt, but her best race came on the Poly Track at Woodbine and that form does not always translate to a dirt track, especially one in New York.  She will be on my multi race and exotic tickets, but for the Win ticket I am trying to beat her.

Race 9 – 8, 7, 3

(8) Vouch may not be the favorite in this race, but the way he ran in his debut I will be shocked if I really can get 6-1 on him.  Whenever a horse comes straight from a training facility/farm and can run how he did the first time he gets to a racetrack it is something to take note of.  There are some very solid horses in this field and he will need to improve to beat them, but between his breeding and his impressive debut I am taking a shot that Vouch could be the real deal.

(7)  Alkhaatam closes like a ton of bricks in his debut and just missed.  Today with the added distance I think he should be a factor late in this race.  He is a Shadwell owned and bred and the fact they kept him and did not sell him in a sale to me says they think he could be special.

(3) Avery Island is the morning line favorite and rightfully so after his G2 win in the Nashua last month here at Aqueduct.  The reason I placed him 3rd is because there seems to be a lot of horses who want the lead early in this field, and his speed figures although he has won aren’t that much better then the rest here so I am expecting him to have a lot of pressure early.

Race 10 – 8,10,4,6

(8) Practical Joke has been the most consistent 3 year old this year.  He won’t win 3 year old of the year, and he is being retired after this race, but this horse is all class, and he loves 1 turn miles.  He ran very well in the BC Dirt Mile where he finished 4th, but was still improving in the stretch.  Today he faces a similar field, but I think with him loving 1 turn it separates him from the rest of this field.

(10) Beasley is another 3 year old who has been tough all season.  He ran a huge effort in Bold Ruler G3 and today is stretching past 7f for the first time since the G2 Tampa Bay Derby in March.  Since Beasley has come back in August, he has improved in all 3 races and has been right there at the finish in all 3 winning 2 of them.  Today is a big class jump, but he has too much grit in my opinion to toss.

(4) Tom’s Ready needs a pace, that is no secret, but with the (2),(5), and (6) in this race the pace should be hot.  He also gets “Big Money” Mike Smith in the Irons who is flying to New York to ride Tom’s Ready.  If you have followed Real Dynasty Picks, we have been saying for over a year now that anytime Mike Smith flies out of California to ride in a stakes race, the horse needs to be on your tickets because Mike Smith does not fly out of California for 1 race for the horse not to show up.  Tom’s Ready is a closer, so he might not be able to run them all down which is why I placed him 3rd, but I will be shocked if he is not making up ground late in this one.

(6)Sharp Azteca loves the 1 mile distance.  in 8 career starts he has 5 wins, 2 seconds and 1 third.  He is still chasing that G1 victory but has had a few close calls, most recently getting caught right before the wire in the BC Dirt Mile.  He is a horse who needs to be on your multi-race tickets because he is the class of this field and has not finished out of the money since June of 2016 (4th int he G2 Woody Stephens).  I am placing him 4th today because of the (2) and the (5) being other speed and have figures that they should be able to hang with him early and ware him down for the stretch run, but he will be on every ticket I play except for my win tickets.

Good Luck Everyone!

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