Opening Night Turfway Park ~ @keenelandpicks

TURFWAY PARK
11/29/17
Race 1
4-3-1A-2-7-5-6
A wide open first race to kick off the meet. None of these maidens would surprise me. The jockey standings will be interesting to watch this meet with no clear cut choice to dominate. My jockeys to watch are Malcolm Franklin and Rayan Gazader, although Kentucky veterans like Dean Sarvis and Channing Hill are very reliable.
$0.50 Pick 5​:  ALL with 1,3,4,7 with 2,6 with 3,4 with 6​​($56)

Race 2
1-4-3-7
These first two races on the card seem slow paced, even by Turfway standards, so it will be good to check in to see if the closers and stalkers do well as they normally do this meet – even when the pace is slow. I will challenge that bias here and go with Ouzts on the front end with the #1 Thatlookonyerface (6-1 ML), who was claimed at Finger Lakes.
$0.50 Pick 4​:  1,3,4,6,7,9 with 2,6 with 2,3,4 with 1,3,2,6,9,12,13​($126)

Race 3
2-6-8
Tough to look past the Ward (#2) and Maker (#6) horses here as the favorites. #8 could hang on for a piece.

Race 4
4-3-2
The top three choices here are also likely to be the public’s favorites as well. Shippers from Keeneland and Kentucky Downs should have an advantage over horses coming from Belterra or Churchill Downs.

Race 5
6-3-12
None of these $5k claimers have won two races yet, and none of them can be counted on with any confidence. The favorite, #6 Patriot Song, has lost the least and probably stands the best chance. But this is a very tricky race to start the late pick 4, offering some good value for the gamblers.
$0.50 Pick 4:​  2,3,6,12,13 with 3,4,5,7,10 with 1,4,8 with 6,10,11,12​($150)​

Race 6
3-5-7-10-4-2-11-12-13
This 2 yr old maiden special weight is pretty tough to figure. Watch the early money at Turfway – especially in a race like this one.

Race 7
1-4-8-10
The #1 Served Cold (10-1 ML) is my longshot bet of the day. If she can outbreak the favorite from her rail post, I think Ouzts can manage her well on the front end. If the track is playing fair from a pace perspective, this looks like a good price on the card. I expect that at least 5 of the 8 races will have a $10+ winner tonight. By this point, the track should be offering clues about how it’s playing, so alter the opinion on the #1 here as the track dictates.

Race 8
11-6-10
A big field to close things out in a $5k maiden claimer. This is the kind of race where you can eliminate probably 8 horses from consideration fairly easy. ​

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