11/23 – Thanksgiving Day Aqueduct Picks/Analysis

Race 1 – 7,1,2

(7) Rose Garden was caught last time out right at the wire after stalking the pace throughout.  She should get a similar trip today with there not being a ton of speed in this field and did show improvement last time out which was only her second start.  An improvement off her last race should be enough to beat this field.

(1) Golden Muscade is adding blinkers today for her 2nd North American Turf start which should benefit her since she is on the inside.  She is coming out of the same race that (7) Rose Garden is where she finished 4th but by only 1/2 length.  Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is 26% with first time blinkers so I am expecting her to run well here.

(2) Blank Slate is going out for Chad Brown and Klaravich Stables which is always a dangerous combo.  Chad does have another runner in here with (5) Pavini (Fr) who will be the more heavily bet so Blank Slate should have some solid value on the board.  Her debut race at Gulfstream park was not as terrible as her 7th place finish looks, but she would need to improve to beat this field.  I will be using her underneath at what hopefully is a solid price for Exacta’s and Trifectas.

Race 3 – 4,2,1

(4) Gravitating is adding blinkers for trainer Anthony Dutrow who is 33% with First time Blinkers and is 35% overall with Blinkers.  He ran solid in both career starts so far and showed improvement.  If he improves again today he should be tough at this distance.

(2) Talon is going out for trainer Delacour who is a staggering 39% with maiden 2nd time starters with 61 starts.  In my opinion this stat alone lands him on my Pick 3/4/5 tickets as it is too good to leave off.  He was a very game second in his debut, but the race overall did not come back with the strongest speed figures which is a bit concerning.

(1) Marzo was a $1,000,000 yearling purchase who finished dead last in his debut which was in the slop at Saratoga, but nothing went right that day for him.  He broke slow, was wide, just an overall poor trip.  Today he lands himself on the rail which is another place I’m not a fan of using 2 year old’s so for that reason he lands 3rd on my selections.  Pletcher so far at Aqueduct is 12 for 18 in the money so far this meet, so hard to toss his horses off tickets at this point.

Race 4 – 8,10,6

(8) Barbarossa has run very good in both turf starts including an 8 length win last time out.  He will need to catch (10) Looking Ready who seems on paper to be the lone speed, but with J.Velazquez back in the irons I think this is one favorite you should not bet against today.

(10) Looking Ready has run against much better then this field in two turf starts but has given up the lead late in both races while being the pace setter.  I think a similar situation happens today as I think (8) Barbarossa is more then capable to run him down.  For exotic wagers Looking Ready I think must be on your tickets as he is almost a sure thing to hit the board.

(6) Jaye Jaye is cutting back in distance which I am not a fan of on the turf, and Mott has been cold this year with 2 year olds, but this one has the breeding for this race.  He was 5 wide in his debut which was impressive as he ran down the field and won by 2 lengths.  If you are looking to play against the favorites here, Jaye Jaye should be a solid price.

Race 6 – 4,6,5

(4) Munchkin Money just missed last time out against (5) Driven by Speed and (9) First Appeal who finished  1-2 in the race at Belmont on 10/27 that 7 total runners in this race are coming out of.   She was 3 wide in that race and today she should get a better position as she is breaking from post 4, but on paper is much better then the 3 horses to her inside.  She should be a solid price, and I like that they are keeping her at this distance.

(6) Barrier to Entry has finished in the money in 10 of 16 life time starts at this distance including 7 2nds which is why I placed her 2nd today.  She was part of the group coming out of the race on 10/27 where she was forced 5 wide and finished 5th by a neck.  She likes to stalk the pace and breaking from the 6 post she should be able to do that today and get a much cleaner trip then she did last time out.

(5) Driven by Speed was the winner of the race on 10/27 and while I don’t think she will win here today, I think she will run well again.  Last time out was the first time she came from the back as she was 7 wide and ran down the field, but usually she is closer to the lead.  Breaking from the 6 post today I do not see a scenario where she will need to be 7 wide in the stretch with her tactical speed so for that reason I think she is very dangerous in this field.  I placed her 3rd because her 2 starts before her win were very inconsistent efforts.

Race 7 – 1,7,10,4

(1) Thais (Fr) is adding distance today and from her past races this seems to be the perfect move.  In her 2 starts in North America she has just run out of ground.  Her speed figures are the best out of this field and she has shown improvement in both North American Starts so another improvement would solidify her as the favorite in this field.  She is morning line 4-1 which I don’t think will hold, but if it does it could be an early Christmas Present for her backers.

(7) Party Boat is one classy filly, but her issue is that she doesn’t like to win.  What she does have going for her today is that her last win was back in April at this distance here at Aqueduct.  She has finished in the money in her last 6 races, all stakes so I would be shocked if she finished out of the money today.

(10)  Rymska (Fr) only has 2 starts this year, but both are G3 wins over solid fields.  Her speed numbers aren’t as strong as my top 2 selections in here, but she is another one for Chad Brown who has improved a little in each North American start.  If she improves again today she will be a major player here.

(4) Dancing Breeze (Ire) is my longshot for this race who I am going to use underneath in my exotic plays.  She only has 1 North American start for Graham Motion which was a 3rd place finish, but she adds ground today and was closing well in that start.   She will need to improve a lot to beat most of this field, but at morning line of 15-1 I think she is worth the risk of using underneath.

Race 8 – 3,4,9

(3) Stallwalk’ Dude is the high weight in the field with 134 pounds, but with the amount of speed in here he should have no issues closing.  He lost last time out, but ran a winning race in the G3 Bold Ruler, and if he duplicates that effort here he should be a major factor.

(4) Threefiveindia was 4th by less then a length in the G2 Phoenix last time out where the 3rd place winner came back to run a huge race.  His speed figures aren’t as high as some in here, but he always seems to have a shot to win late in races.  Should be a decent price as well as he has never won at this distance.

(9) Seymourdini was not himself in the G3 Bold Ruler, but still ran a solid 4th considering how the race played out.  He wants to be on the lead and just didn’t get going early so was forced to close which he did well with all things considered.  If the Seymourdini from his first 3 starts of 2017 shows up he will be very dangerous in here, but that last effort has me a bit worried which is why I placed him 3rd.

Good luck if you are playing along, and have a Happy Thanksgiving!

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