Breeders’ Cup: BC Mile Thoughts, by @SeaBass912

Breeders’ Cup Mile
​This year’s Mile starts the late pick 4 and, in a sequence featuring Arrogate on the back end and Bolt D’Oro at 9-5 in Leg 2, I just can’t rationalize giving out a short price in this race. Sure, I could just give out the European stalwart Ribchester and no one would bat an eye. But anyone with a Form can open it and back him. You don’t need me for that. So I’m going against the grain and taking a stand with an overlooked Euro. I land on 20-1 outsider Zelzal. In four starts over firm turf, I toss his first turf try as it was in just the third start of his career and in a Group I against The Gurkha, the Sea The Stars colt has two wins, including his lone G1. Zelzal’s last two efforts have been over soft going. In his most recent effort in France where he got worked up. He made a big run to midstretch before flattening out. The race before that he finished fourth in the Sussex, to next out winners Lightning Spear and Ribchester, after being hampered in the stretch. Again, in a race over off going. Al Shaqab sends out Karar, drawn 14, to rabbit for this guy who is almost certain to get going as firm as he wants it. With a favorable pace setup, with Midnight Storm, Heart to Heart, and World Approval all drawn to his inside and his stablemate drawn to his outside there’s no reason why Zelzal can’t sit a covered up midpack trip and burst home for the win at a great price.
​Want to give a quick shoutout to the good people at 5MTP and give my thanks for giving me the opportunity to give my two cents.

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