Breeders’ Cup Thoughts, by @23ledbetter

14-Hands Winery Juvenile Fillies
Coming into this race I really liked Heavenly Love and SeperationofPowers. Well, Heavenly Love drew the first post and SeperationofPowers drew thirteenth. After this draw I’m scratching both from my top spot. I think Heavenly Love gets pressed and sent to front and I’m not sure she’s comfortable there. The 7-Moonshine Memories comes into this one undefeated and she has proven she’s fond of this Del Mar track. She won the post draw in my opinion and will have a few options out of the gate. With how she’s coming into this one and after the post draw the 7-Moonshine Memories is my top choice. My one to watch here is the 4-Gio Game. She debuted on an off Saratoga track going five and a half furlongs and didn’t show much. She then was sent in a turf router and ran into some trouble, but managed third. Then she broke her maiden in impressive fashion going a mile and a sixteenth at Keeneland. Obviously the jump from maiden to Breeders Cup is tremendous, but don’t overlook her if she can improve off that effort. At 15-1 on the Morning Line she is one to keep an eye on.
Top Pick: 7-Moonshine Memories
Value: 4-Gio Game
Also Using: 1-Heavenly Love; 11-Wonder Gadot; 14-Seperation of Powers

 

 

Sentient Jet Juvenile
Bolt d’Oro. If I could get creative with this top spot I would, but let’s look at his resumé up to this race. He’s won at Del Mar, twice. He won the Front Runner by seven lengths. And I don’t think the 11th post hurts him that much. It isn’t ideal, but this allows Corey Nakatani to watch how this race is going to unfold to his left. Bolt d’Oro is my top pick, but I believe there is one other horse in this field who can compete with a good trip. That is the 5-Free Drop Billy. He won the post draw with the 5 spot and he seems to be improving. He looked his best at a mile and a sixteenth and I truly believe this race comes down to the trip these two horses have. With Hollywood Star, Dale Roman’s other starter in this race, drawing the far outside I think he loses a little creativity and can’t set the race up to his liking as much. Hollywood Star is another horse who could benefit from a speed duel up front with his late closing style. My value play for this race is Larry Rivelli’s The Tabulator. He breaks from the seventh spot and he comes into this one undefeated. He hasn’t faced much competition, in fact his first race only featured three runners. But he’s answered every challenge so far and I think he has the best chance of the 20-1 shots. I had this value spot reserved for US Navy Flag, but after getting the 1st post position I just think too many factors are against him. I truly believe this is a two horse race with Bolt d’Oro and Free Drop Billy, but I’ll use The Tabulator as my value and also use Hollywood Star.
Top Pick: 11-Bolt d’Oro
Value: 7-The Tabulator; 12-Hollywood Star
Also Using: 5-Free Drop Billy

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

w

Connecting to %s