Santa Anita: October 28, 2017 Picks and Analysis, By Jeff O’Reilly

Race 1:

(5) Goseecal has good tactical speed and should sit a dream trip in this spot Saturday. Has had tough trips her last few races and should improve with a better trip here. (7) Cynthiana has good late pace figures in a race that has a decent amount of speed signed on. If the pace heats up this one should be rolling late. She will be a short price so I am Leary about putting this horse on top as she will be far back in the early going. (6) November Tale had a brutal trip last out. Had to steady hard last out and raced even in the lane. If she gets a clean run, she will be right there on the wire.

Selections: 5-7-6

 

Race 2:

(5) Midnight Run takes a plunge in class after having to steady last out against much better. Should appreciate the cutback and drop in class here. Will sit midpack and take over near the top of lane if things break right. (2) Desert Domination might be on the lead early. There is a decent amount of pace in here so it could compromise him late. If he gets an easy lead, he will be very tough to catch against these. (6) Skagit River might be the speed of the speed. As previously mentioned there is a good amount signed on here and there looks to be dueling leaders. This one could gun out of the gate and get the lead. Stayed on well despite doing exactly that last out.

Selections: 5-2-6

 

Race 3:

(10) Lori’s Attitude has the looks of a vulnerable favorite. Has been a beaten favotite last two times out and I’m banking on making it a third straight here. There is a ton of pace and this one will be right in the thick of it early. She will be a short price and I will pass. (3) Mag the Mighty figures to be a big number in here. Has had absolutely no racing luck in any of her three starts. Has good tactical speed that will serve her very well in here. Is 15/1 on the morning line and I think you can get all if not more than that. (5) Amore Gattina also has good tactical speed. Raced very wide last two trips and figures to improve with a more ground saving trip.

Selections: 3-5-10

 

Race 4: (3) Ucanthankmelater has tremendous late pace figures in another race loaded with speed. He will take back and make one run at it. Has run well at the distance and will be a decent price as others in here also figure to take money as well. (2) Saint Dermot has good tactical speed and might find himself on the lead. Has been wide last few out and should get a better trip with an inside draw here. (1) Jonny’s Choice could be the speed of the speed. This horse is stretching out and the distance could get the best of him. Figures to be dueling but might be good enough to hang on for a piece.

Selections: 3-2-1

 

Race 5:

I tried to beat (4) Hoppertunity but just couldn’t find a horse to do so. He is a grinder and just wears down horses in the lane. This might be a bit on the short side as he appreciates longer distances. Baffert should have this one ready to first off the bench in here. His speed figures are much better than anyone has ever ran in here. If he runs back to his usual form he should be a winner.  (5) El Huerfano could get a walking lead in here. There isn’t much pace signed on and might just wire this field. This horse looks to have the best chance to pull off an upset.

Selections: 4-5

 

Race 6: (11) Painting Corners looks very tough in this spot. Has raced on the downhill turf course twice and won for fun both times. This one looks to be no different. Has good speed early and should wire this field. (6) Joe’sgoldenholiday has good late pace figures. Had to spilt horses last out and didn’t seem to appreciate that. Should get some pace to run at and improve with a better trip in here. (1) Take A Deep Breath also has good late pace figures. Raced against much better the last few out. Should appreciate the drop in class and could be dangerous at a generous price.

Selections: 11-6-1

 

Race 7: (8) What’s Inside looks like a vulnerable favorite. Was bet like he couldn’t lose in his debut and had every chance to go by the winner and just couldn’t do it. I will pass at a short price. (6) Treasure Hunter looks to be absolutely loose on the lead here. Adds blinkers and is a first time gelding. Won’t be a big price but should be a good single in multi race wagers. (7) Haulin Freight drops in from a better MSW condition here. Adds blinkers which should help get this one closer to the pace early on. (1) Rodeler should be on the lead early. Dueled at first asking and hung on well to only be beaten by a length. Could be tough to catch if other jockeys grab a bit in the early going.

Selections: 6-7-1

 

Race 8: (6) Shivermetimbers ran a giant figure at first asking. If he runs back to that he will win this race rather easily. Has put in a couple works Since his first effort that give me confidence he’s ready to roll in this spot. (1) Paint me lucky is the “other Baffert here.” Has good works over the surface and looks ready to fire at first asking. (5) Mckinzie is the morning line favorite for Baffert. He will be bet heavily in here. Has a mix of seemingly good and just okay works lately. I will let him beat me at a short price. He was named after the owners who passed away in August as a tribute.

Selections: 6-1-5

 

Race 9: (9) Profiteer is third off the layoff for Shug. He’s old school and this is the perfect spot in his form cycle to run big here. Had to race wide and still finished with a good stretch run to just miss last out. Gets Mike Smith in the irons for this trip. (2) Cowboy Culture attracts Florent Geroux all the way out here for one mount. Now he would have mounts in nearly every leg at Keeneland if he so chooses. Him making the trip for one race leads me to believe this horse is primed for a big big effort. Now maybe he is committed to this horse or there are behind the scenes things going on that I don’t know about but my inclination is to believe this horse will be ready to fire. (6) Sharp Samurai is in great form lately. Has been wide in his last few races and still came with a big run to get up and win. Should be tough in this spot.

Selections: 9-2-6

 

Race 10: (10) Besides the Point has god tactical speed for this trip here. Comes back in just three weeks and should be primed for a big effort. (9) Coronado Cool raced vs the 10 last out and was no Match. Was too far back and had no chance to make up the ground necessary to get the job done. If she breaks better and gets a good trip she could turn the tables this time out. (1) Spinyatta has raced against better and is taking an absolute plunge in class here. Has good speed figures but ones that don’t exactly tower over the field. Is going to be a short price and one I will look to beat.

Selections: 10-9-1

 

Race 11: (3) Gosofar should be as loose as he wants in this spot. There is no speed in here and this one should work out an absolute dream trip. Gets Evin Roman in the irons and we will see just how far his speed will carry him Saturday. (1) Bold Papa has good tactical speed and shouldn’t be too far off the leader in the early going. If the 3 doesn’t fire this one should inherit the lead at the top of the lane and get first run on the closers. (10) Chidmac is my selection at a price to spice up the Exotics. Has raced incredibly wide his last few out and hopefully can work out a better trip. Hasn’t raced cleanly in one effort yet and will improve once he finally gets some racing luck.

Selections : 3-1-10

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s