Keeneland 10/22 Analysis
The Sunday card is one of the toughest ones I’ve had to handicap. These fields are packed head to toe with horses who can compete against one another and I expect to see some big prices. Now all we have to do is figure out which big prices! We missed both Pick 4’s by the slimmest of margins yesterday, but again I’ll have a reasonably priced Late Pick 4 and I might just go after the early as well. Take a look, play some picks, and let’s have a great Sunday.
Race one is an option claim 100000 going six and a half furlongs. This is a six horse field, but boy is it competitive. The likely post time favorite is the 4-Wings Locked Up who comes into this one off a few stakes wins. But I could honestly see any of these horses returning to their best form and winning here. I’ll play a double ALL with the 5 in the next.
Race two features a 30000 claimer going a mile and a sixteenth for fillies and mares. I really like the 5-Sneaky Betty. Since coming over to Brad Cox’s barn she ran on the turf and was game till the end, but it was on turf so I think we can toss. And then she won a maiden going this distance at Churchill. It seems Brad has found the way to get the best out of this horse and you throw in Florent Geroux and I love a horse trending up a lot more than one that’s trending down. She’s a risky single, but I’ll single the 5-Sneaky Betty.
In race three we have another claimer going a mile and sixteenth this one for 7500. Since we singled the five to begin with it allows us to go a little deeper here and I think we need it. With some major contenders in this one I’ll go very deep with the 1,2,3,4,7,9,10
Race four features our first maiden a 65k going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf. Now I HATE singling a maiden. I think there is one worth singling, but it’s a maiden and I can’t bring myself to do it. The 3-High Promise has been running against some steep competition and has some near misses. He gets Jose Ortiz and it just seems like this horse is due. He’s got a lot of factors going for him that point to this being the one. Another horse I gotta look at is the 2-Bold Prophet. He’s making his third start off the layoff which will also be his third turf start in a row. In those two turf starts he’s drawn the 9th post and he gets a much more favorable post here. This horse also hasn’t looked bad since coming over to the turf. I’ll use the 2,3.
We go back to the sprints here with a six-and-a-half-furlong claimer on the dirt for fillies and mares. The 2-Case Cracker should get the lead, but it’s also a question of do we get the Case Cracker from last out or two races ago. She looked out of sorts last race as she gave way and hopefully it’s just a one-time deal. If she gets on the lead and returns to form she handles this field easily. However, with that last race in mind I went with 2,7,8.
Early Pick 4 Ticket: 5/1,2,3,4,7,9,10/2,3/2,7,8 Total Cost: $21
I had a tough time handicapping the Late Pick-4. My first ticket was in the $150’s and honestly it took a lot to even get it down to where it’s at. If you have a ticket in my mind I highly encourage you to play it, but these are some very deep races.
Race six is a mile allowance on the turf and I went six deep to kick off the Pick-4. This is a highly competitive field and my top pick is actually somewhat of a price. The 7-Get Explicit is 12/1 on the ML and if we get anywhere near that she’s great value. She comes into this one off breaking her maiden at Woodbine. It was her first effort on the turf, she got bumped, and still went on to win. Here in her second race on the turf expect some improvement. My price play of the day is 7-Get Explicit. I’ll use 4,7,9,10
Race seven is a maiden for two year olds going seven furlongs on the dirt. This race I believe anyone in this field can win this race. I truly do. So I’ll click the ALL button.
Race eight is the featured race of the day the Grade 3 Dowager. Going a mile and a half on the turf for fillies and mares and I believe this is a three horse race. 2,7,10 all come into this one off decent length layoffs, but they’ve shown they can run with the best. As far as the race setting up I’m hoping the 7 and 10 don’t get into a pace battle with the 5. However, if that were to happen I believe it sets up perfectly for the 2. This should be a fantastic race and I’ll look for the 2-Lottie to come flying home under Jose Ortiz. I really didn’t want to single here, I’d like to throw in the 7 & 10, but to keep costs low I’ll single the 2-Lottie.
We finish the day with an optional claim going 7 furlongs on the dirt. This has an attractive field featuring one horse in Zulu who was once on the derby trail. 2-Grand Candy drops in class after a win and so far, trainer Mike Maker is 100% when doing so. The 4-Navigator comes into this one off a huge effort and could be one to reckon with. 9-Rocking the Boat has won two straight off bumped starts and could surprise this field. My top picks going into the last are the 2 & 9. However, I’ll go 4 deep with the 2,4,8,9.
Pick 4: 4,7,9,10/ALL/2/2,4,8,9 Cost: $64
Budget Pick 4: 7,9,10/3,4,5,6/2/2,9 Cost: $12
Lock of the Day: 5-Sneaky Betty Race 2
Price of the Day: 7-Explicit in Race 6