Keeneland Analysis 10/21
There are only two Saturdays left in the Keeneland Meet as the weather gets colder and we turn our attention towards the Breeders Cup. The highlight of today’s card is the Grade 2 Lexus Raven Run Stakes for three-year-old fillies going seven furlongs. The race is chalked full of maidens and a few allowances and looks to be a great day of racing per usual. Let’s win some money and enjoy the beauty of Keeneland while it’s here.
Race 1 is a 75000 maiden claimer going six and a half furlongs on the dirt. This race is WIDE OPEN. It’s a collective group of well-bred and trained first time starters as well as some second-time-outs that showed promise. If there is a filly you like here I definitely encourage you to play her. I went with the 4-Lady Warrior a second-time starter out of the Catalano barn. A drop in class and coming off a nice work at Churchill she should improve off her first start and gets the class drop. I also like 2-Union Obsession a first time starter for Mike Maker and the Ramseys with Jose Ortiz getting the ride. Her workouts haven’t been that impressive, but you have to show respect to the connections. Finally one to watch here the 3-Superstar Diva switches over to the dirt although it seems her breeding fits the turf. But she gets first time Lasix and should improve off her first start. At 10-1 on the ML keep an eye on her. 4,2,3
Race 2 features another maiden claimer this one for 30000 for fillies and mares three-years-old and up. The 8-Honors Paradise is running first off the claim for Thomas Amoss and they’re still trying to find her niche. In her three career starts she’s sprinted on the dirt, ran a route on the dirt, and a route on the turf. She returns to a sprint on the dirt and I think that’s what she prefers. She gets Florent Geroux who’s having a great meet and Amoss is a 39% Route to Sprint. I’ll go deep in the Pick-4 with 1,5,7,8
Race 3 is an optional claim going a mile and a sixteenth on the dirt. This race has attracted a great field full of some nice contenders. I went with the chalk here in the 5-Seeking the Soul. Comes into this one off losses to Honorable Duty and Destin and gets some class relief. He’s had some great speed figures and is 1 for 1 at Keeneland. I’ll use 1,5,6 in my Pick-4, but if you can go deeper I would.
Race 4 is another option claim this one going 7 furlongs for fillies and mares. I’ll single with the 7-Kirby’s Penny here. Hasn’t raced in 48 days, but gets a field she should handle. She comes into this one off two allowances and she’s 2 for 2 at Keeneland. I’ll lock in the 7-Kirby’s Penny.
A maiden going a mile and sixteenth on the turf and this has attracted another fantastic field. I’ll go four deep to finish my Pick-4 and there’s two I really like here. The 6-Starving Artist and 10-Coach Rocks both come into this one out of a 130k Maiden at Kentucky Downs. They ran second and third and switch post positions in this one. I like Coach Rocks a little more, however draws the outside post. I’ll also use the 3-Sahara Breeze who looked alright in her first out for Ian Wilkes. She showed improvement at the end of that one and Ian Wilkes is winning at 20% for second routes. Mountain Momma won two back but was disqualified and steps up in class. Not a huge fan, but she deserves some respect here. 2,3,6,10
Pick 4: 1,5,7,8/1,5,6/7/2,3,6,10 $24 Early Pick 4
Race 6 is another going a mile and a sixteenth on the dirt this one a 25000 claim. Take a breath as this is our race between Pick-4’s. I’ll try an exacta here and take a race off from the multi-race exotics with an exacta box:4,9,11
Race 7 is the start of the Late Pick-4 and is a 7-furlong maiden for two-year-old fillies. The 7-Elusive Truth should be the post time heavy favorite after placing third last out. The Santana-Asmussen combo has had a great meet and I think she will improve after her first out. I’ll go three deep however with the 1,7,9.
The 8th is a turf sprint for fillies and mares. This field has attracted some heavy hitters and I really like the 2-Cherry Lodge. Out of Todd Pletcher’s barn she comes into this one off a loss, but cuts back in class and distance. The 4-Excessivespending is one of a few coming in off a stakes race at Indiana Grand and it just took her too long to get going. She goes back to a sprint and is a major contender here. I’ll also throw in the 9-Smiling Causeway as she drops in class after a narrow miss in her last out. She’s definitely dangerous here. 2,4,9
Race 9 is the featured race of the day, the Grade 2 Lexus Raven Run Stakes. This seven-furlong race for three-year-old fillies is another packed field on this great card. There are a few interesting cases here in the 8-Chalon who is making her second start of the meet, the 11-Miss Sunset and 9-Classy Tune who both ship into Keeneland from the West Coast, but I like the 7-Tequilita. She broke her maiden at Keeneland and is returning off a win in the Grade 3 Canterbury Oaks. Has had some great workouts and seems to come into this one strong. I’ll go deep in this one however because I feel we have some great fillies packed in this field. 2,4,7,8,11
Race 10 caps off the day at Keeneland and I was hoping for a single here to reduce ticket costs. Unfortunately, that wasn’t the case. I went two deep with 4-Freedom and 9-Jaunt. There are a lot of questions regarding a lot of this field, but Freedom gets a shorter distance and a drop in class. Jaunt has nine career starts, but she has showed promise in a few of them I’ll finish the Pick-4 with these two and hope we get some prices early on to make up for the price of the ticket.
Pick 4: 1,7,9/2,4,9/2,4,7,8,11/4,9 $45 ticket
Lock of the Day: 7-Kirby’s Penny in Race 4
Price of the Day: 3-Sahara Breeze in Race 5