Keeneland: October 15, 2017, By Trent Ledbetter

Keeneland 10/15

After a lot of stakes action in the past few days we get a break and a handful of maidens, claimers, and three allowances. Even though lacking in Stakes this makes up to be a great day of racing. There are a handful of evenly matched fields and I think we’ll have a lot of photos. With rain in the forecast it’ll be interesting to see how these play out. I played these picks with planning on rain affecting the track a little.

 

Race 1

The first race on Sunday is a claimer going a mile and a sixteenth on the dirt. A small but evenly matched field of six here. With rain in the forecast I’ll look into the 3-Sanavi. With two dirt starts both on off tracks and wins, he seems to like the conditions. This horse has looked great on the dirt and ran his highest figure two races ago on the dirt. They tried him on the turf, but he didn’t take too well on the surface. I’ll play WPS on the 3-Sanavi.

 

Race 2

The second race is a maiden claim 15000 and I’ll stick with Florent Geroux with the 3-Tolstoy. This son out of Uncle Mo makes his second start and first start since being gelded. He comes into this one off a seventh month layoff and gets a drop in class. I’m not too thrilled with anybody in this field and I think there’s a possible price here. I’ll play the 3-Tolstoy.

 

Race 3

Race three is a seven-furlong claimer and I’m gonna stick with the chalk here. The 6-Catanova hasn’t raced in two months, but all of his previous speed figures were in the 80’s. Gets a little class relief and I think he’s got a great opportunity here. I’ll play the 6-Catanova.

 

Race 4

We get our first turf race in race four going a mile and a sixteenth. I think the 5-Shining Copper is the one to beat here, but that’s exactly what I’m going to try to do. The 7-Cooptado comes into this one from Stakes races in Singapore and Dubai. I think the important thing here is he gets blinkers and Lasix for the first time. With those additions, in this field, and at 8-1 on the Morning Line he’s definitely worth a look here. 7-Cooptado If this one does get taken off the turf which I don’t foresee I’ll play an exacta 7-8.

 

Race 5

The fifth race is a small claimer going a mile and an eighth. There is nothing that particularly stands out about any of these horses. Huge field, but a LOT of questions regarding almost all these horses. So I’ll go with the horse making his 83rd start here Union Bowman. Starting from the 10 spot he comes into this off a second at Churchill. He has a little drop in class here, but if there’s a horse you like in this field I highly encourage you to play it. I’ll throw a few bucks on the 10-Union Bowman but I’ll try my best to stay out of this one.

 

Race 6

The sixth is an allowance sprint on the turf featuring an evenly matched nine horse field. The 3-Brielle’s Appeal. She comes into this one after breaking her maiden at Kentucky Downs in her first career start. With the race under her belt I think she improves here and no speed breaks inside of her. With a clean break and if she gets on the lead I don’t think they’ll catch her here. I’ll use the 3-Brielle’s Appeal. I’ll throw in the 6 and the 8 for my Pick 4 just to be safe.

 

Race 7

The seventh is a 65K maiden for fillies going seven furlongs on the dirt. The 5-Malibu Treasure is making her second career start after a first try at Churchill. That was a six-furlong race and she was gaining. She adds experience here and an extra furlong, but she also adds Lasix for the first time. I think these factors give her a tremendous upside and set her up to win this race. I’m playing the 5-Malibu Treasure.

 

Race 8

The eighth race is a turf race going a mile and a sixteenth. If the weather is what is forecasted the turf could be good and not firm by this point. It’ll be interesting to see if they keep this one off the turf. The 4-Corby and the 7-Summer Luck both come into this one under similar circumstances. They’ve both been racing against tough competition and look for a win here. I’m gonna try to beat them with the 10-Last Promise Kept. Comes into this one off breaking his maiden at Kentucky Downs and looked good in both her starts. I’ll play an exacta box 4,7,10.

 

Race 9

We finish the day with a claimer going six furlongs on the dirt for three-year-old fillies. If the 6-Girls Know Best can get a clear break and hits the lead she won’t get caught. The 8-Promises Broken is an interesting case after getting pulled up in her last. If she can retain to her old form after a layoff I think she can win here. This is a very even field and I think a lot of potential winners here. I’ll play both to win and place here and look forward to seeing how Promises Broken makes her return.

 

Price of the Day:7-Cooptado race 4

 

Lock of the Day:5-Malibu Treasure race 7

 

Late Pick 4:3,6,8/1,5/4,7,10/6,8 I had to keep this ticket cheap I think this Pick 4 is a hard one to play and we could see some balloon prices

 

Good Luck to ALL!

 

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