Keeneland: October 14, 2017, Queen Elizabeth Stakes Analysis, By Trent Ledbetter

Queen Elizabeth Stakes Day

What a week at Keeneland it has been! Wednesday we saw, in my opinion, the most impressive Stakes win of the meet with Rushing Fall winning the Jessamine with a huge late close. Last night we got the pleasure of watching Morticia lead them home in the Buffalo Trace Franklin County Stakes. Finally, today we get to see the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth featuring a spectacular field. As always, the undercard on a Keeneland Saturday is loaded and will be full of fantastic racing. Let’s get some winners home and enjoy the halfway point of the Keeneland Fall Meet.

3rd Race

The third race is a 6-furlong maiden claim sprint for two-year-old fillies. I chose to look at this race because I think we might get a price through here. The 2-Awesome Day is 6/1 on the Morning Line and lost by a nose last out. I’ll toss her first race she was against a way too tough field and she got valid race experience last out. She was six wide and just missed and with the 2 spot here I think she gets the trip she wants. I’ll play her to WPS and hope we get a decent price here.

5th Race

The fifth race features an allowance going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf and is an intriguing field. Featuring a horse who broke his maiden last out in a 130K on his eleventh attempt in the 1-Morocco, a horse coming in off the Sunland Derby with 5-Oxford Lane, and arguably the biggest question of all in the horse I’ll play, the 7-Takeoff. Comes into this one off a sprint that was his first attempt on the Turf. The race before that he was out finished by two respectable horses in Guest Suite and Untrapped. Mark Casse must’ve seen something with this horse on the Turf and I think he’s better running a route. 10/1 on the ML and with the amount of question marks this horse has he should be a decent price. The Leparoux-Casse combo will be hard to get great odds on, but let’s look at the positives. He has the connections, it’s only his second attempt on the turf, and he drops in class. I’ll play him and hope he pays for my Pick 4 ticket.

Queen Elizabeth

A loaded field here on the Turf in the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth the second Challenge Cup. Some veteran fillies here coming from all different parts of the country contribute to a very impressive lineup. I’ll go with the tried and tested 6-La Coronel. She simply gets the job done at Keeneland and is 2 for 2. She’s running her third race since coming back from Ascot and has been steadily improving and Mark Casse is having a great Keeneland meet. In her third race back and at her seem to be favorite track I think she gets it done here. 11-New Money Honey comes into this one off a loss in the Alabama so she can’t be discredited especially after a win in the Belmont Oaks. Another horse here trained by Casse is the 4-Dream Dancing. Comes into this one off a nose win in the Del Mar Oaks and the Leparoux-Casse connection has been red hot this meet. She is definitely one you have to throw in to any exotics you’re playing. Finally, the fourth horse I like here is a huge price on the morning line, but I think has potential and some factors going for her. The 1-Con Te Partiro comes into this one off a 4th place finish in the Del Mar Oaks and only lost by a length. That race was her 1st race back since heading to Ascot and I think a great effort considering the circumstances. I’ll use all four in my pick 4 and hope we get the 1 here.

Pick 4: The late pick 4 wasn’t an easy one to handicap. If you have the money to go deep I highly suggest you do so. When you’re a broke college kid, you can’t go deep. I singled the 5-Bee Jersey in the last, but who knows how he will take to America and the Keeneland Track. If I could go deeper I would throw in the 1 & 9.

Pick 4: 4,7,9/3,4,5,9/1,4,6,11/5

Price of the Day: 5th Race: 7-Takeoff OR 3rd Race:2-Awesome Day

Lock of the Day: 5-Bee Jersey is the closest thing I’ll call a lock, but lots of questions surrounding this horse.


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