Belmont Park: October 8, 2017 Win & You’re In Edition, By Paul Hundley

Hello everyone and today we’re going to be just looking at the 2 “Win & You’re In” races for the Breeders Cup. They are the Frizette (BC Juvenile Fillies) and Flower Bowl Invitational (BC F&M Turf)

RACE 7 The Frizette G1, 1mile, 2 year old Fillies: 1-MAYA MALIBU won debut at Delaware by 6L, then was beaten less than a length in G1 Spinaway last month where she made a strong charge mid race but seemed to flatten out during the stretch. Did beat today’s M/L favorite 4-SEPERATIONOFPOWERS by 3 lengths that day. Graham Motion is 14% first route and does lure Castellano back on board. 2-GO was 2nd at a huge price in a maiden at Ellis that has been her only start. Would have to improve dramatically today to have a chance, which isn’t out of the question. 3-STRATEGIC DREAMS crushed a MC 50K group in debut and now tries this spot. Can’t blame connections for thinking big, and can’t blame anyone who might take 12-1 or in that ballpark, on her based on that win. Already made more money than she was purchased for back in May. Pace presence. 4-SEPERATIONOFPOWERS is 9/5 favorite but disappointed last out in Spinaway at 3/5. Did set a fast pace however, and Chad Brown is 30% first route. Still, there’s other speed in here that can definitely hinder her. 5-DRAMA RUN ran a huge BRIS speed figure in debut, 94, going gate to wire at Arlington. Comes in for same connections as 2-GO does, and will be one of a few in here possibly wanting early lead. Really not sure what to make of her coming off polytrack. 6-PURRFECT MISS broke maiden by 3L last out, sitting closer to the pace than she did in debut, though she did have to steady at the start there. Trainer Jeremiah Englehart is 0 for last  13 in Graded Stakes. 7-WALLOF COMPASSION was a well beaten 3rd in Adirondack last out and would need about a 15-20 point jump in speed figures to contend today.  8-TEEN ANGEL is a FTS(ummm, ok) showing only 4 works. Nothing on paper suggests she has a prayer. 9-CALEDONIA ROAD won debut in the slop at Saratoga after stalking early pace. Ralph Nicks only 1 for last 23 in Graded Stakes. 10-CRITIQUE actually has tried to run on turf both career races but, as luck would have it, both were taken off. Rolled to a 16L win last out on a good track after sitting just behind leader early. Pletcher is 28% first route and will have no problem with extra furlong. Outside posts have not done well this meet in 1 turn miles, though I’m not sure how many of those races carded more than 7 entries.

Hard to pass up Pletcher at 6-1, though I doubt we get that. I cannot trust Seperationofpowers here.

10-CRITIQUE, 1-MAYA MALIBU, 3-STRATEGIC DREAMS

 

RACE 8 The Flower Bowl Invitational, 1 1/4 mile, F&M, 3 and up: From class AND pace standpoint, not sure anyone touches 4-ZHUKOVA in here. Yes I do know her previous U.S. start was on yielding turf, but I’m not sure how much that factored in to her 6 length win vs the boys in the G1 Man O’War Stakes. Is the only one in here I see who may want to up front early, and with her late kick, if she’s allowed the early lead, it’s over. So the question is, who runs 2nd? Obviously 3-DACITA is a prime candidate to do so, having just won Beverly D 2 months ago. Has proved she doesn’t need a fast early pace to close into. 1-GRAND JETE is actually the morning line favorite here, but there’s no way she will be Betting Favorite. Was beaten half length to stablemate Dacita in Beverly D. Has done very little wrong since entering U.S. , and is 1-1 at Belmont. Has never been on soft ground since coming here, and results in Europe were mixed. I’m actually thinking 6-GUILTY TWELVE has a shot at the place spot. Has a win at Belmont, 2-2 at the distance, and has been running longer distances the last 2. Never been on less than firm turf, but at 12-1 willing to give a shot.

4-ZHUKOVA, 6-GUILTY TWELVE, 3-DACITA. Playing a Trifecta 4/6/All about 4 times, 4/6/1,3/All $1 Super two times.

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