Churchill Downs: September 30, 2017, Late Pick 4, By Trent Ledbetter

Churchill Downs Late Pick 4
This weekend I broke down the Late Pick 4 which features 3 Stakes at Churchill Downs. It’s a cheap ticket and with a price in the end we could make some money here. Later on this week I’ll be unveiling my Trending Ten, which will be breaking down the Top 10 2 year olds on the Derby Trail. Thanks again for reading and how about we get one home!
Race 8
The 8th Race is the Jefferson Cup going a mile and an eighth on the Turf. I’ll stick with the chalk in 3-Mr. Misunderstood. This horse has looked fantastic ever since coming out of the Illinois Derby. He gets Florent Geroux here and his best wins this race. Another one to watch here is 2-Giant Payday an Ian Wilkes trained out of Giant’s Causeway. Comes into this one off a win the Mystic Stakes and he drew outside that race and had to come from far back and six-wide. He draws inside and gets a smaller field. The only thing that makes me nervous here is the lack of early speed. I’ll use both in my Pick 4.
Race 9
The 9th race is another mile and an eighth race this one on the dirt. The Grade 3 Lukas Stakes named after the Hall of Fame and record holding trainer. The 6-Eagle is the second choice here and comes into this one off a second place finish in the Monmouth Grade 3 Philip H. Iselin Stakes. Eagle is closing in on a million dollars in earnings and I think can bounce back off that last effort. This five year old has ran a handful of times at this track and has another handful of second place finishes here. Unfortunately I think he’ll add a second today. As much as I like this horse the 7-Honorable Duty looks to be the one to beat. He comes in off a second, but that second was to Gun Runner, who will be a favorite in the Breeders Cup. He hasn’t raced in a while, but this horse is just a neck above the rest here. Corey Lanerie will add to his Churchill leading wins and I’ll use the 7-Honorable Duty. Due to singling in the next race I’ll throw in the 6-Eagle here.
Race 10
Race 10 is the Grade 3 Ack Ack going 1 mile on the Churchill dirt. As much as I hate picking 3 chalk horses in a row, you can’t look elsewhere here than the 4-Awesome Slew. This four year old trained by Mark Casse and ridden by Corey Lanerie comes in off a second in the Forego. His past two races have both been seconds but to Champion Sprinter Drefong and the G1 winner Mind Your Biscuits. He gets a field he can handle here and think he finds the winners circle after a few tough races. He draws to the outside of Conquest Big E who will be looking for the lead and I think he can sit off him and overrun him in the stretch. So I’ll go with a chalk single here 4-Awesome Slew.
Race 11
Race 11 is the last race of the day and a Maiden Special Weight. The 5-One Last Strike will be tough to beat here, but I think he’s vulnerable. Due to the low cost of the early races we have a little wiggle room here price wise. The 8-Big Dollar Bill is 6-1 on the Morning Line and gets a class drop. He returns to a route and can definitely win in this spot. Same can be said about the 9-Bold Prophet. The 4-Dig Charlie Dig seems due for a win and could definitely get it here with Florent Geroux aboard.The 2-Photo Moment is a first time starter out of Bodemeister and with the space we have mine as well throw him in here. I’ll use 2,4,5,8,9 to finish off my Pick 4.
Pick 4:2,3/6,7/4/2,4,5,8,9 Total Cost: $10

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