Santa Anita: September 30, 2017, Guaranteed Pick 4, By Jeff O’Reilly

Race 8:

This race has a lot of pace signed on in this one. These are 2 years all going this distance for the first time. It can be a bit of an unknown how they will take to the stretch out. (4) Bolt D’Oro showed a powerful stretch run last out in the Del Mar Futurity. He has a good pedigree for going longer and should benefit from all of the speed up front. (1) Zatter briefly led in the Futurity before being worn down by Bolt in the stretch. He has good early foot but doesn’t necessarily need the lead to be successful. Has shown the ability to rate which will work to his advantage here. (3) Ayacara has already gone around two turns and has the best late pace figures here. When things heat up in front of him, he will be rolling late. Is a generous 10-1 on the morning line and could spice up the pick 4 right away. (8) Solimini won at first asking for Baffert. Was a bit green in the stretch but still got the job done rather comfortably. Has a solid pedigree and will get bet with his trainer. I wouldn’t recommend going past these four in the Pick 4.

Race 9:

Race looks to be wide open on paper with many horses in with a chance. If you wanted to buy the race I wouldn’t talk you out of it. (7) Beau Recall fires every time but seems to settle for a minor award. She has tremendous late foot with a race that has a good amount of early pace in it. Raced very wide last out and still finished full of run. Should get the job done with a more ground saving trip. (5) Avenge got dueled into the ground last out but still hung on to only get defeated by 3 lengths. If Prat sends and other jockeys grab she could end up with a walking lead. This isn’t the New York jockey colony so that seems unlikely but she should still be tough in this spot. (8) Decked out comes in second off the layoff for Keith Desormeaux. Had a tough trip last out while having to steady in the stretch which cost her a better placing. Desormeaux clips winners off at 22% 2nd off the layoff of over 180 days. (10) Goodyearforroses was blocked in the stretch while being full of run last out. Barely missed and was probably best. Will likely be the favorite at post time but in this field I can’t recommend taking such a short price on any horse.

Race 10:

Another tough race with multiple horses in with a chance. (8) Cupid comes in 2nd off the layoff for Baffert. Wasn’t very impressive last out but that was most likely a prep. His race 2 back at this track was by far his best of his lifetime. If he runs back to that he should win easily. (6) Mubtaahij is unraced since the Dubai World Cup. Has been working really well over the track and seems primed for a big effort. Has speed figures that are very competitive if not better than the field in this spot. (5) Breaking Lucky has chased Gun Runner in his last two efforts. That won’t work out well for almost any horse. He was not disgraced and finished on the board in both tries. (3) Midnight Storm will be on the engine early. His form tailed off in his last few spots and likely wants shorter. The freshening could work to his advantage but I will only include in more spread tickets.

Race 11

Another wide open race in an extremely tough sequence. When handicapping the downhill turf course any horse with experience over it always get elevated for me. (3) Kenda absolutely loves the downhill turf course. Has tried it 4 times and never done worse than second. Should sit a good stalking trip for Prat. (9) Spin Me a Kiss also has an affinity for the turf course. Has 1 win and 2 seconds in three tries at the distance. Has good early foot in a race devoid of much early pace. Is taking a cutback in distance that should suit her just fine. (4) Tapped was ambitiously placed in the Grade 1 Del Mar oaks last out and ran pretty well to only be beaten by 4 lengths. This cutback in distance should be much more to her liking. I would recommend spreading pretty heavily in the finale of this Pick 4.

Recommended tickets:

4/5,7,8,10/,6,8/3,4,8,9      $16
4/5,7,8,10/8/3,4,8             $6
1,4/3,4,5,7,8,10/3,5,6,8/3,4,8     $72
1,3,4,8/5,7,8,10/6/3,4,8,9           $32
1,4/3,4,5,7,8,10/8/3,4,8              $18

Two tickets I will have repeated multiple times:

4/5,7,8,10/6,8/3,4,9           $12
1,3,4/4,5,7,8,10/6/3,4,9     $22.50

One massive spread:

1,3,4,8/5,6,7,8,10/3,5,6,8/3,4,5,8,9      $200

Total investment on base .50 wager no repeated tickets: $378.50

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