Belmont Park: September 22, 2017, The Value & The Vulnerable, By Paul Hundley

Hello and welcome to a special Friday edition of the V & V!. Let’s hope we can right this ship, on Sunday we had a couple run 3rd, but not good enough to score anything for us. Let’s dig in and see for today.

RACE 1: This race seems to boil down to 4 horses; 1-Fastlanefrontman, 3-Midnight Mike, 5-Shamrocked, and 8-Shoot the Gap. I’m expecting the 3 to get bet down, and honestly I don’t have a lot of confidence in anything Albertrani sends out at anything less than double digit odds, no offense to him. So that leaves the 1 and 5 for the top spot. Leaning towards the 1 on top in a WP bet, and may even a Trifecta Key 1/3,5,8/3,5,8.

 

RACE 2: 4 of the 11 entered are MTO, so let’s just ignore they exist. 1-R Lucky Charm, 10-Avery Maybe, and 11-Same Kinda Crazy all have decent early speed, and even 6-Mojo’s Queen as well. Because of this, I believe 3-May Flowers will be bet far more than a 2 for 23 horse should. However, I’m going to take a flyer with another possible early speed type in 9- Mom’s a Cougar, who co.es in for Abel Castellano, a former Jockey and cousin (I believe) to Javier. Abel has been very able(rimshot) so far, winning 5/14 in his young training career. Mom’s sire, Kantharos, is 16% first turf. W/P on the 9.

 

RACE 3: PASS. 5 horse field, so not alot of value to be had. I’d say be leery of What a Catch, if I’m singling anyone in here for a horizontal wager it’s 3-INALIENABLE RIGHTS.

RACE 4: 8-Purely Lucky should be favored in here I would imagine off of 1/2 length defeat last out at today’s level. 12-Big Expense and 9-Northernstreetgal were behind her in that race at Saratoga, and it’s realistic the winner today comes from those 3. However 7-MAMMIE’S TREASURE is a very intriguing FTS out of Treasure Beach, whose progeny have been tearing it up on turf so far. Christophe Clement is 15% debut turf and her Dam has produced 2 turf winners already. W/P, maybe keybox an Exacta.

RACE 5: She didn’t run very well in 2017 3 year old debut as 8/5 favorite, but I’m thinking 10-VERY FASHIONABLE in here may offer value today. Trained by Linda Rice, who is 0/11 as of 9/16 but still had 5 seconds and 3 thirds. She’s 27% first start with, her and Lezcano are a gaudy 43% together last 21 together, and they only time this one was on turf went get to wire in debut at Saratoga. Recommend W/P.

RACE 6: I’m guessing 2-Beat the Benchmark will be the one to beat here, and you’re always rolling the dice betting against Chaddster. However I think a couple in here deserve a look, the 8-Tizanillusion is one of them. Has been 2nd today’s level last 2 efforts, not sure if the added distance will be beneficial or not with her style of being near the lead early. However, not sure there’s a ton of other speed to challenge. I’m leaning towards 12-BATTLEMENT, who was 4th last out, half length behind Tizanillusion. Think she will appreciate the added distance on the 1 turn, not necessarily sure what price we’re getting, but pretty positive will not be the favorite. W/P , maybe keybox in an Exacta with 1,2,4,6,8,9,11 , or at least some of those.

RACE 7: To me, this race comes down to 3 horses; 1-Runaway Lute, 6-Jewel Can Disco, and 7-Rectify. I do realize 5-Sudden Surprise is 1st off the claim for super dangerous Brad Cox(30%) not to mention a perfect 3/3 at the distance. So, I’d say box those 4 in your Exacta and Trifecta and leave it at that.

RACE 8: I kinda love races written like this because you often can find a horse who qualifies under the most obscure condition. Odd that, for this type of race, we have 2 of the turf entries having never run on the green before. Of the 2, Miss Hollywood would appear the more interesting one of them, considering she was a $1.35 million purchase at the Keeneland September Sales in 2013. Also add that she is by former Stakes Winner Hollywood Story, whom I don’t think ever tried grass herself. So, I will let those 2 beat me if they can. ¬†Ancient Secret won her first 4 career races, has lost the last 5 and representing Chad Brown, will be over bet. All in Fun rarely sprints, and her only try at the distance was an off the board finish. So this leaves the speed of Portmagee vs the closer Stormy Victoria. Going with the latter, whose best races have come at Belmont and the last 2 tries less than a mile both resulted in Wins. W/P on the 6 and play an Exacta box with the 3.

RACE 9: PASS

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s