Belmont Park: September 16, 2017, The Value & The Vulnerable, By Paul Hundley

Hello everyone and welcome once again to the DOUBLE V! Last Sunday’s column didn’t go how I wanted it, but today is another day. Let’s get into the action.


RACE 1: Bar None(2/1) is dropping off the claim for David Jacobson (37%, 30% dropping 2 or more class levels) but has been off the board last 5 races dating back to beginning of 2016. More concerning, has not shown any turn of foot in all 3 starts in 2017. One horse who has serious speed, at least early, is my VALUE in this race, 6-SHADOW SURPRISE (12/1), who should be the speed of the speed in here I believe. The concern is there are a couple of others in here that will go as well, meaning Shadow might get pressed too much and falter. However, at his price will take my chances. $5 WIN, $10 PLACE


RACE 5: Normally wouldn’t tackle these 2year turf events, but a couple intrigue me here, namely 9-CITY DAY(8/1), who was a credible 3rd of 7 in debut that was originally scheduled for turf. Gets Lasix for the first time for Christophe Clement (24%) and he’s also 22% first turf. Monmouth star rider Nik Juarez rides. $5 WIN, $10 PLACE, $1 EXACTA KEY BOX 9/1,4,5,6,7,8,10,11


RACE 6: VULNERABLE FAVORITE ALERT! 2-Stormy Alexis (3/1) has already been beaten at this level twice, is 0/3 at Belmont. Also seems to have a bit of 2nditis, with 8 place finishes. Good ITM play, BAD Win bet however. 3-War Canoe may have 3rditis, having been the show horse 3 times in a row at today’s level and now switches to Dylan Davis from Rosario, who’s out of town today. Alot of these in here have ran at this level before or broke maiden in last, but 5-SILLY NUMBERS (12/1) is marking first time in for a tag, and does have a win at Belmont and today’s distance. Also gets extremely underrated turf rider Jose Lezcano. $5 WIN, $10 PLACE


RACE 7: Annals of Time ‘should’ win this, but obviously no value unless you single in horizontal wagers.


RACE 9: 6-Uni is the morning line favorite at 3-1, but I’m not entirely sure will be Betting Favorite. 3-La Coronel, the import 8-Vue Fantastique, and even 10-Inflexibility will all draw plenty of money IMO. There are a few in here that I think offer good value to those; 2-Fifty Five, who has never been worse than 3rd in 8 races. Did run 2nd two back to New Money Honey. 5-Chastise makes 2nd start of 2017 for Pletcher after scoring at Saratoga at 21-1!(which we had on here btw, goto the August 19 Saratoga edition and check! I’ll wait…) but my VALUE of the Value is 4-FAULT(15/1), who won the G3 Pucker Up last out for Michelle Lovell. Has 5 consecutive Exacta finishes on turf, and gets an excellent turf rider today in Flavien Prat. $5 Win, $10. Place, $1 Exacta Key Box 4/ALL

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