Woodbine: September 16, 2017, Woodbine Mile Day Analysis & Selections, By Jeff O’Reilly

Race 1:

(2) Halo Laelia comes out of a race at Saratoga first out against much tougher. Gets into a softer spot vs. Ontario Breds. Casse has good numbers second out and this horse should run well. (5) Lassies Tears was a little wide at first asking for Gall Cox. Should get a good stalking trip with Boulanger in the irons. (8) Miss Danielle has showed speed and stopped in all three starts. There isn’t a ton of speed signed on. If she clears she could be tough to catch but at the price she will be I will let her beat me as she will be well bet off the class drop.

Selections: 2-5-8

Race 2:
(1) Jupiters Eagle gets good class relief from her last effort. She will sit a good trip even with breaking from the 1 hole. Should take control of the race at the top of the lane and draw off. (8) Crimson Ring has been working well over the course and should be ready to roll at first asking. Gets top local jockey Da Silvia in the irons. (2) Sky Vision has good early foot and should be on the lead early. If she can get an early lead without working overly hard, she could be tough to catch. Is 6-1 on the morning line and might be good value in a race devoid of much early pace.

Selections: 1-8-2

Race 3:
(10) Avie’s Mineshaft was a bit wide last out and still finished full of run at first asking. Gets lasix for the first time and should improve with it. Will be a very short price Saturday. (3) Lopety Loo raced against much tougher last out and ran a game 2nd. Should appreciate the stretch out to Saturday’s distance as she has a good pedigree for it. Boulanger stays in the irons and this one will be flying late. (6) Megalopsychia should sit mid pack and get a good trip in this spot. Picks up lasix for the first time in four tries and I’m banking on that moving her up. Should be a giant price and with a heavy chalk on top this one could provide value underneath to spice up Exotics.

Selections 10-3-6

Race 4:
(10) Tomato Bisque should be loose on the lead. She has good early speed in a race that is lacking just that. She got involved in a big speed duel last out and stayed on well to only be beaten by 2 and 3/4 lengths. (7) Y’all was well backed in debut and should improve second out for Roger Attfield. She raced wide throughout and finished even. Should get a good stalking trip and the distance will be to her liking. (1) Grace and Dignity has been working really well over the track. Catherine Day-Phillips has very impressive numbers first out. This one should be ready to fire at first asking.

Selections: 10-7-1

Race 5:
(8) Aciano had a brutal trip last out. Had to take up at the start and was bottled up in the lane before unleashing his run. Should get a better trip and result this time out. (3) Malibu Bonnie raced wide around the track and still finished up well last out. Has tactical speed which will help her work out a good trip in here. (4) Turbo Driven Diva also had a tough trip last out. She was completely blocked last out and was never allowed to come with her run. Was well bet last out and should appreciate the slight cutback in distance here.

Selections: 8-3-4

Race 6: (7) Circle of Friends has good early foot and should work out a good trip in here. Was rather wide last out and lost a ton of ground. Should improve with a better trip here. (4) Good Bye Greg is extremely fast early. This is a bit of an acid test here. Will be a short price and I’m weary about putting this horse on top taking a big jump up in class. (3) Puntrooskie is a very consistent horse and fires nearly every time out. Won this same raced last year and is a generous 12-1 on the morning line. He will get a good trip with Patrick Husbands in the irons and will stay on until the end.

Selections: 7-4-3

Race 7:
This race is a Maiden 10,000 and one that is very wide open. Any of these horses can win and I wouldn’t take any of them at short prices. I recommend just watching the race and possibly even just popping a quick pick exacta and boxing it. If you must play it my very tepid selection would be (5) Did You Hear Me. Has been working well and I’m just not a fan of the other horses form so I am willing to take a shot on this firster.

Race 8: (1) Quidura will deservedly be an odds on favorite. Should be as loose as she wants on the lead. (5) Elysea’s World has great late pace figures and close well into a slow pace last out. If for some reason this heats up at all she will pick up the pieces late. (7) Involuntary should sit just off Quidura early on. Finishes with good run every time out and Saturday should be no different.
Selections: 1-7-5

Race 9:
(5) Allied Sugar Ray should be absolutely loose on the lead here. There is no early pace outside of this horse. He’s 3rd off a long layoff and should be primed to run a huge race here. (2) Conquest Swingman takes a nice class drop into this spot here. Was rather wide throughout last time out. Should improve with a ground saving trip. (7) Discreet Dan raced very very wide and still came with a big run despite finishing 6th last out. If he can work out a better trip this one should be a good play underneath at long odds.

Selections: 5-2-7

Race 10: (8) Hawkbill comes over from Europe and absolutely towers over this field. Has raced against much much tougher than he will face Saturday. I am against the (4) Messi in this spot. There isn’t a ton of pace signed on and they will be crawling up front. My fear is he will be too far back and at a somewhat short price I will play against underneath. I prefer the (3) Noble Thought. Patrick Husbands should get a good stalking trip just in behind the speed. If the chalk doesn’t fire this one should be there and get the jump on the deep closers.

Selections: 8-3

Race 11:
(9) Pugsley has good early foot in a race that doesn’t have much. Husbands should have this one forwardly placed. Loves the distance he will get and should be primed for a big effort if he gets a pace scenario to his liking. (11) Narrow Escape takes a major class drop into this spot. He showed speed last out and got roped into a duel and faded. Should improve on the class drop with Luis Contreas in the irons. (10) Bear’sway also takes a class plunge out of a grade 3 last out. I am a little weary of putting this horse on top because he will be a short price and is taking a MAJOR class drop which is sometimes a red flag for me when horses drop this much. There’s often a reason they are offered at this level. He could be much too classy for these horses but I will let him beat me at short odds.

Selections: 9-11-10

Race 12: This has the looks of the best betting race of the day. Full field of 12 and many many horses in with a chance. I am giving (8) Mondialiste a shot in here. Has been a little off form but gets his preferred distance and firm ground Saturday. He does his best running over this type of surface and won this race 2 years ago. (10) Lancaster Bomber ships in for Aiden O’Brien and has kept great company in his last few races. Ran against Ribchester last out who is a very top class race horse. Is a 3 year old facing older but is already proven in North America over firm going. (6) Deauville loomed at the top of the lane in the Arlington Million last out. He flattened out to finish third. Should appreciate the cutback to a mile here. Likes firm going and should be primed for a big effort. (1) World Approval seems to run his best with a little cut in the ground. He most likely won’t get that Saturday. I will be playing against on Saturday. I will use him only on saver tickets.

Selections: 8-10-6

Race 13: (4) Katrina’s Way should be loose on the lead in this spot. There isn’t much pace signed on. Luis Contreras is an aggressive rider and should work out a good trip. (5) Prized Bourbon takes a class drop into this race. Has speed figures that are better than the field if she can run back to them. Chased a quick pace last out and should improve with a more ideal scenario. (13) Paddy Point will be flying late. If this pace heats up she will pick up the pieces at what should be a large price. She was very wide last out and should appreciate the cutback to the distance Saturday.

Selections: 4-5-13

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