Belmont Park: September 10, 2017, The Value & The Vulnerable, By Paul Hundley

Hello everyone and welcome to the first edition of the V & V for The Belmont Park Fall Championship Meet. If this is your first time stopping by, I’ll try to find a few races where there might be extra value on a horse than normal, while also identifying some horses who will probably be heavily bet that you shouldn’t bet. Let’s get to the races!

RACE 1: The 1-Frostie Annie has won 2 of the last 3 races gate to wire by 3+ lengths, and Paco already has a win at the young meet after struggling at Saratoga. Also is 3 for 4 at Belmont. However, after each of her last 2 wins, followed them up with last and next to last finishes, though the last performance 2 back was on turf. Still, point remains she has not pieced together 2 good races in a row in quite a while, if ever.  And her last effort was a career best BRIS Speed figure, so there are a lot of indicators saying this one bounces. Also believe 5-Call Her Karma gets heavy bet with RROD 1st off claim (33%) and dropping off claim (45% from 42 starters), is 0 for 4 at the distance however. To me, the value here is definitely 7-KENTUCKY DANCER. Yes has been beaten a combined 35 lengths last 3 starts, but all vs Allowance and Starter Company. Last 2 times in for a tag, won by 4 3/4 and 9 1/2 lengths respectively. Comes in for Bart Hone, who has very respectable numbers. Suggest W/P and maybe even keying on top in an Exacta or Trifecta.

RACE 2: Interesting race, Six FTS, only 3 have been on turf, and only one has been a route on turf. There’s been a lot of hype about 9-Blockade, who tried multiple times to race at Saratoga but was thwarted by races off the turf and not drawing in. 11-Ambassador Jim is m/l favorite if it stays on, and was 2nd/10 in debut with the winner coming back to win his next start as well. Also gets a big Jockey upgrade to Rosario. Also, sire Treasure Beach has really come out smoking with his turf runners. There are other options, ones that will be a lot better odds than either of these will. 3-Victor Lounge is a FTS for Wesley Ward (24%) by freshman sire Declaration of War, out of Stakes Winner Miss Childrey, who has produced 3 turf winners and 2 Stakes winners. 4-Witch Doctor (15/1) didn’t do alot in debut taken off turf but Mike Maker is 19% first turf, and is by hot freshman sire Overanalyze. 8-Arch Value is a FTS for Brian Lynch (17%) $200K purchase was 5th highest at last year’s Keeneland September Sales of Arch yearlings. If you really want bombs away, 6-Raise Em Up is a FTS for Richard Violette (27% from 73 starters). Food for thought.

RACE 4: 8-Homewood Field (2/1) failed at this level last out as 8-5 favorite, has been very dependent on running into a fast early pace, which I’m not sure I see today. 5-Air Vice Marshall has failed at this level all 4 races in U.S., twice as the favorite. Does switch to Castellano. Value, to me, is 6-NEW YORK SONG, has won 3 in a row, not coincidentally all 3 since switching to turf. Now tries open company, but won’t be far off the early pace and has numbers that are good enough. W/P Key on top in a Trifecta.

RACE 8: Hard for me to recommend anyone past the 2 favorites in here. Maybe the 3-Fact Finding takes to turf like he did dirt, but not sure he’ll even be a lot of value anyways.

RACE 9: Though 6-Jamyson ‘n Ginger has been a beaten favorite her last 2 starts, she deserves favoritism here and clearly stands out. That being said, only one start this year very concerning, so would be leery of putting all my eggs into this basket.

RACE 10: 1-Crazy About Jazz is 2-1 favorite, nearly missing at this level last out as tepid favorite, probably has pace advantage early, and the rail during spring meet was more than fair in turf sprints. However, 6-RAGAZZA DI PAPA (12-1) appears to be real value in here. 2 back ran the highest speed figure anyone in here as ran breaking maiden, probably didn’t care for the softer ground last out in first try versus winners. Jeremiah Englehart and Luis Saez are 29% together last 21 starters. W/P and key in an ex box.

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