(7)Nisha gets back to her preferred surface in dirt. Takes a bit of a class drop and should sit a good stalking trip here. (4) Gobi has a good late kick in a race with a decent amount of early foot. She has the best late pace figures in the race and should be flying late. If she gets too far back early I’m not sure there is enough distance for her to get up in time which is my only trepidation in putting her on top. (2) My golden rose is very consistent and should like the distance she will get Saturday. Michelle Nevin has good numbers 2nd off the layoff which bodes well for her.
Race 2: (9) Triangulate makes his second start for Chad. The second place finisher from the race last time came back to romp at Kentucky Downs on Wednesday in a competitive maiden race. Should improve at second asking as Chad’s numbers second out are almost 30%. (10) Devine Entry was wide throughout first time out. Wheels back in just 2 weeks which makes me think Linda Rice is confident this one will run well. Her number second out are impressive at 32%. (4) Indifference has been working well recently. John Terranova has a tendency to have his first time starters out run their odds. This one should be a generous price and should run well with Saez in the irons.
Race 3: (3) Carlino raced incredibly wide last out and still finished up well to only get beat a nose. Should get a better trip from the 3 hole this time out. (7) Harlan Punch had a rough start last out and still finished up well. Should get a good stalking trip in behind the speed. Will get the jump on the deep closers and might inherit the lead at the top of the lane. JJ gets in the irons and typically is a master of working out good trips. (1) Portfolio Manager is going to be a very short price Saturday. I’m not crazy about this horse and at the odds he will go off at I will let him beat me.
(5) Coal Truth had an absolute horrible trip at first asking. He hit the gate then raced 5-6 wide throughout. Finished well down the stretch despite losing so much ground in a race that didn’t have much pace. Should improve second out for Chad. (1) Allured was well bet on debut and raced even. Was a bit wide last out and should appreciate the stretch out to a mile here. (6) Super Sermon sat a good trip and was empty in the lane last out. Is likely to take money and I am playing against. The rest of the field is a bit uninspiring so I don’t see many alternatives underneath. I am playing against on top however.
(8) Glory to Kitten should sit an absolute dream trip for Manny Franco. There is a good amount of speed early on and this one should sit mid pack and pounce on the big sweeping turn at Belmont. (1) Kahrumana will be forwardly placed early. Now this could comprise her late but she has been in good form and could hold on for a piece late. (5) Vagabond should be rolling late as her late pace figures are the best in the field. If the pace collapses this one could pick up the pieces.
(1) Wake Island looks very tough in this spot. Should sit a beautiful trip in here and take over at the top of the lane. Will be a short price and deservedly so. Has a tendency to hang in the stretch which would give me pause singling in any multi race wager but should get the job done Saturday. (5) Length was very green at first asking and should improve with the added blinkers. She will sit much closer with Joel in the irons. Mott isn’t great second out but this one should be a good price to compensate for that. (3) Speighal absolutely flew home into a slow pace last out. My only concern is that there isn’t much pace signed on again here and the stretch out could dull her kick a bit.
Going to the outside for my top pick in (11) Treatherlikestar. Got jostled around at the start and was much further back than she prefers to be early on. Still finished like a rocket to get up for show money. Should get a better trip and result Saturday. (3) Itsinthestars broke in the air a bit last out. Finished up well and will be flying late for Casse. If the race falls apart this one will be flying late to pick up the pieces. (6) Queen of Spades has good early foot and might clear this field. If she gets away with an easy lead she could shock at a big number. Does her best running at this shorter distance and could hang on for a piece at a generous price.
Race 8: (6) Far from Over has the looks of a vulnerable favorite. Was all out for much of the turn and stretch and failed to make up any ground. Has been in bad form for awhile and I will gladly take a shot against here. (3) Conquest Windycity looks to be loose on the lead here. There is no pace signed on and he is the only one that will look to go from the gate. The fractions should be incredibly slow and this one will stay on till the end. (4) Securitiz should sit just off the 3. He is a very consistent horse who runs his race nearly every time out. Has hit the board in 5 of 6 tries at the distance. (1) Backsideofthemoon is my longshot play in this race. If for some reason there is any type of duel this one will be rolling late. The distance is a bit of a concern but at the number he will be, I’m willing to take a shot underneath.
I’m willing to give (7) Highland Sky one more chance. He should appreciate the cutback to this distance he will get Saturday. Has 3 wins in 5 tries at it. He might not be the same horse he was last year but this group isn’t nearly as tough as he was facing. (4) Camelot Kitten, like Highland Sky, has a lot of back class. He comes in second off the layoff for Chad. I’m willing to bet his horse’s back class carries him to a good finish here and there is some early foot which will setup Camelot’s good late kick. (9) Night Prowler should get a good stalking trip with JJ in the irons. Is very consistent and fires a good race nearly every time out. Might get over looked in the wagering and could drift up from the 5-1 ML. This one could be the value of the race.
My longshot play of the day comes in the last. (3) Outrageous Bet had to steady hard last out and still came with his normal good late run. There a lot of pace signed on and when this thing heats up he should pick up the pieces. Should appreciate the 6f he will get Saturday. If he is anything close to the 10-1 morning I recommend a wager across the board. (6) Mineralogy might be the speed of the speed and just out class these horses. Takes a bit of a drop for Michelle Nevin here. If the other jockeys grab and Reyes sends, this one could be tough to catch. (5) Gasconade should get a good stalking trip in behind the speed. Englehart has good numbers in turf sprints which gives me confidence this one will run well here. Was a little wide last out and ran on even. The cutback to 6f should move him up here.
Late Pick 4 Play: