Saratoga: August 20, 2017: The Value & The Vulnerable, By Paul Hundley

Hello everyone and welcome to the Sunday edition of the Double V! Yesterday was more to my liking, 2 more Vulnerable Favorites exposed, and our winning tickets were 9 TIMES our wagers! Let’s get to today.

RACE 1: While 9-Lightning Buzz is morning line favorite at 3-1, I don’t expect him to be the post time choice. I’m guessing it’s either the 6, or my selection here 10-SILVER ASSAULT, who drops into the claiming ranks, and it’s a huge drop from where he has been running in. Last out tried to chase a solid pace in a race won by PETROV, who I think will develop into one of the better 1 turn horses in the next few months. Bill Mott is 27% first time claiming, and Silver is making 2nd start for Mott as well. I got believe there’s some form still there from his 2 year old season. While probably no value W/P, will put on top in a Trifecta 10/1,4,6,9/1,2,4,5,6,9 $10 ticket.

RACE 2: PASS. Too many horses trying turf for first time and none of the experienced turf horses inspire me.

RACE 3: Interesting MSW turf route. Want to mention that Katie Clawson, who was just interviewed by 5minutestopost, is riding in this race. 6-Complicit is the 5/2 favorite, and it is Chad Brown, but others in here look better. 9-EQUALITYFORALL takes Blinkers off for Linda Rice(4 for last 11 doing this) and she’s also 28% sprint to route. Also her and Jose Lezcano are 5 for last 13 together. Horse made a nice move to rally for a close beaten 4th last out. $5 WIN, $10 PLACE.

RACE 4: I hope whoever has 1-Noneedtoflatterme has the good sense never to run him on anything but dirt ever again. 2/2 on dirt, both BRIS figures in the 90-91 area. That being said, not going to play around him because Trainer Raymond Handal is 0 for last 12 with claim repeaters, and only 1 for last 33 with horses who win last out. You know what this is called? VULNERABLE FAVORITE ALERT! Going to take a real stab in this one, with 8-BOLD AGAIN (20/1), has won 2 in a row after debuting on turf, which makes him undefeated on dirt like the favorite. Now granted, his speed figures are lacking, but remember those races were run at Delaware, which has quite the quirky surface from what I hear. Won both dirt tries handily, now cuts back in distance and tries the big time, sorta. Trainer Keith Nations makes his 2017 Saratoga debut with this one, he’s 32% with Claim repeaters and 20% with Shippers. $5 WIN, $10 PLACE, $1 Exacta Key Box 8/1,2,3,4,5,10 $12 ticket

RACE 5: 2 year olds routing on the turf? PASS

RACE 6: I will try to tackle this race. Only 3 of the 11 entered have raced; 1-Party Club appears too slow. 10-Purrfect Miss ran a solid race in debut but was awful cold on the board that day at 53-1. Does have 2 maintenance works since, but will be far less odds this time. 3-In Jail ran a nice but well beaten 2nd in debut at Laurel, and has a bullet work coming in. Keep an eye on 9-Mia D’Oro, a FTS for Asmussen with Ricardo Santana Jr aboard, those two teamed up yesterday for a nice upset with a FTS. Was purchased for $450K in March, and Asmussen 16% FTS, Sire Medaglia D’Oro 13%. Dam Starinthemeadow has 6 winners from 8 starters including a Stakes Winner. $5 WIN $10 PLACE

RACE 7: Taking another stab in this one. Am guessing that either the 1-Wicked Macho or 9-Gehrig will go favored. While both are certainly contenders, neither exhibits early speed when it comes to the turf. 4-ITALIAN SYNDICATE has never tried grass before, but if he can take to it should be out front early. Danny Gargan is 30% 2nd off the claim and he and Kendrick Carmouche are 5 for last 11 together. $5 QIN, $10 PLACE.

RACE 8: PASS. This looks like it could be a good betting race, but having a hard time narrowing it down.

RACE 9: Wow for a Stakes Race, it sure does lack early pace. 2-Going for Broke is the favorite, and should be you in here. Has run very well at Saratoga and is only making 2nd start of the year. Going to try and beat her with 5-BLUE PRIZE, making 3rd start of 2017 , and puts Blinkers On. Hoping this former Group 1 winner in Argentina will be closer to the pace than previous 2 races in the US. Had a very nice 4 furlong drill at Keeneland coming in to this. $5 WIN, $10 PLACE.

RACE 10: PASS

 

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