While I recognize that others in here have more class, my favorite angle in racing is the horse for course angle. And #1 Dubini is undefeated, both on this turf course and at this distance. The horse just finds ways to win and hasn’t been beaten yet. Inside draw should be favorable. #4 Simon Bar Sinister finished second in the My Frenchman Stakes in his last start and drops in class here. He has been out of the money only once at Monmouth, and if the top choice fails to deliver at this class level, this one should win. #5 Derek’s Smile is a sneaky play in here. Those last two turf efforts are concerning, but both of those starts were on good-rated courses, and this horse did take two stakes races at 5f on the turf at Gulfstream, and gets leading rider Nik Juarez today. Should be a serious overlay. #2 Super Spender has a horrible record over the Monmouth turf course and ran a puzzling race in his last start. I think he will be overbet and isn’t worth a play for me.
#4 Shack’s Legacy gets a well-meant drop down in class and has run figures competitive enough to win this race. He should be on the lead as his early pace ratings are faster than the likely favorite, #9 Crazy Daisy who has gotten away by running slow fractions on the front end in route races only to be caught each time. The cutback in distance may help, but I’ll go with the former to wire the field. #8 Galaxia has some pretty sneaky good speed figures in here and will be coming from off the pace. Shannon Uske has been pretty reliable on getting closers to place all throughout this meet. If they go too fast up front and collapse, this is the horse most likely to benefit and reap the rewards, if not, I trust Shannon to get this horse going anyway to run in the trifecta.
#4 Bluegrass Demon has run two great races back-to-back that would beat most of these in here, and gets an extra 70 yards today to assist that closing kick under Shannon Uske. #7 Russian Greek gets a significant drop in class for Jorge Navarro, but Navarro stepping down in class isn’t the same as stepping up. Therefore, I’m skeptical. These are the only two horses that jump off the page, so I may consider making a decent win/place wager on Bluegrass Demon.
I love these allowance turf events at Monmouth- always interesting races. #6 Convivial was as impressive as you could be in that maiden win. Bad break, trails the whole way, then goes 7 wide (don’t know why that isn’t in the comments) and mows them down under a hand ride. I think there’s a bright future ahead for this horse, and that excellent work on July 31 shows this one should cycle forward. #4 Muggsamatic just missed by a neck at this class level two back, dove into the deep end against stakes company and drops back down to this level again today. That last effort should help us get better odds today than 1.80-1. Value is there. #7 Total Joint gets the third spot as this one has yet to finish out of the money routing on turf. The late pace figures are good, the horse consistently finishes well and is quite a reliable trifecta finisher against similar company. Jiminez is the question mark, but he’s been riding pretty well as of late. You can’t go wrong with #3 Don’t Over Look either with Nik Juarez aboard after that last race, but you gotta narrow it down somehow.
Interesting MSW, but I have a hard time seeing past the three favorites- 3,4- and I’m having trouble separating them. Onto the feature!
Race 11- Grade 3 Violet Stakes
#8 Pricedtoperfection waited too long to make her move after bobbling at the start and did her best running too late in that last race at Saratoga, which came off of a layoff. She was running as fast as the winner at the end, but the winner got a few lengths on her before she made that move. The extra eighth of a mile should help her big time, and Juarez is enticed. Her effort in the Commonwealth Oaks just might win this. #5 Arraign will be a good price in here. She’s been training very well up to this race, and Matz sees fit to enter her in stakes company for the first time. Her recent form is great- she finished ahead of Tricky Escape (also in this field) two back, who returned to place fourth in two graded stakes races, late pace ratings of 90 and 100 are very competitive, and she seems poised to have a breakout effort. Brendan Walsh is shipping #4 Beauly here from the midwest after that last effort, though that did come with a perfect trip up the rail when a hole opened up. She has had bad trips in the past having to circle outside of horses, but she might make some noise in the lane if things go favorably. #2 Light Up Our World has run great figures in her last two races, both speed and late pace. This is another one, like the top selection, who has run within a few lengths of My Impression. Arnold Delacour has yet to win a race this meet, and I feel that this one’s kick isn’t strong enough to win this race, but has a good shot to run underneath. I feel good about the top choice in here, but it’s a crapshoot between the next three. Have fun playing this race- might be good for a trifecta or superfecta key.