Arlington: August 12, 2017, Arlington Million Day Analysis & Selections, By Jeff O’Reilly

Race 1:

Trainer Larry Rivelli sends out two horses in this one. The story, for me, comes down to the jockey bookings. Jose Valdivia rides the first time starter (8) Richiesonarampage. (7) Just Blaze has been a beaten favorite twice in both of his lifetime starts. Has shown early speed and gave way in both of those starts and finished up well beaten by over 13 lengths. (4) In the Best I Know is a first time gelding in his second lifetime start. First time geldings always get a boost in that next start.

Selections: 8-4-7

Race 2:

6-5 ML favorite looks tough. Pass.

Race 3:

(5) Seeking Treasure was bottled up for a bit in the stretch before finally finding room to run and closed well into a slow pace. There is a little more pace signed on here and he should get a good trip with Geroux now in the irons. (1) Daddy’s Boo is a fast horse who will be on the lead early. From the rail Valdivia will have no choice but to gun for the lead. (6) One Liz has good tactical and should eb able to work a good stalking trip and if Daddy’s Boo backs up could have the lead at the top of the lane and will have to hold off the closers.

Selections: 5-1-6

Race 4:

(3) One Last Strike ran extremely wide in his first start at Ellis. Has worked well since his debut and picks up Jose Ortiz for the mount. This horse should appreciate the minor stretch out to 1 and 1/16th miles. (4) Kittens Solution was in against tougher last out at Keeneland. Has been well bet in every start and should work out a fine trip in here. (10) Mongolian Greywolf adds blinkers and will make his first try on turf. Ran well first off a 7 month break and should improve here and could find himself alone on the lead.

Selections: 3-4-10

Race 5:

(6) Side Pocket has the makings of a Vulnerable Favorite. Anytime a horse airs a field at a low level and then drops in class is a red flag for me not to mention is also cutting back in distance when he prefers longer. (3) Kyzan should be loose as he wants. There is no other pace in hear and should be able to clear easily. (8) Electricfying has some good early foot too. He should be just in behind Kyzan and work out a perfect trip. (1) Profluent picks up Geroux for the mount and stretches out to 7f here. If there is any type of duel he is the best closer in the race and will pick up pieces late.

Race 6:

Race is extremely wide open. No opinion in race. Pass.

Race 7:

Major Vulnerable favorite in (4) Oscar Performance. He has been allowed to absolutely walk on the lead in his last two victories. That will not happen today with (2) Sonic Boom (6) Taj Mahal signed on here. (3) Permian is my BEST BET of the day. The price won’t be great but he looks like the likeliest of winner on the card. He should work out a dream trip in behind the speed and take over once they hit the stretch run.

Selections:

3-5

Race 8:

(8) Uncontested is the classiest horse in the field and got involved in a wicked speed duel last out and did well to hang on to 3rd. Shouldn’t be nearly as quick of a pace this time around. (4) Smoke ‘n’ Gloat has good early speed in a race lacking much of it. Should be on or near the lead with Uncontested. (10) Society Beau has great late kick and if the pace heats up at all he will be coming home strongly.

Selections:

8-4-10

Race 9:

Two inside chalk horses look tough on paper. Will use both in p4 and p3.

Race 10:

This race came up pretty salty with many horses in with a big chance to win. (9) Hawksmoor has gotten away with very easy early lead in both of her last 2 victories. There is a little more speed signed on in here with (6) Zipessa and (10) Rain Goddess. I’ll let Hawksmoor beat me here. (7) Rainha Da Bateria always seems to run her race. Has better than average speed and should be too far in behind the leaders early. (1) Dacita had no pace to run at last out in the New York and should get the benefit of a quicker pace here. (3) Kitten’s Roar, like Dacita, had zero pace in the New York. She finished well and was the only one making up any kind of ground late. Should be a very big price and is likely to out run her odds. Race is wide open and I will be spreading in all horizontal wagering.

Race 11 The Arlington Million:

(10) Beach Patrol got hooked up in a bigtime speed duel last out in the United Nations. He dug in and did very well to finish third only beaten a bit over a length. The other speed in that race finished up the track. (11) Divisidero was against the turf that day as nobody made up too much ground on Belmont Stakes day on the turf. He will be flying late and I am giving him a pass on his last race. (13) Mekhtaal is a very classy horse having raced against the likes of Highland Reel, Decorated Knight, and Queen’s Trust among others. Any one of those would be a deserving favorite. The only reason he is not my top pick is the post is a tough one to navigate from the far outside.

Selections:

10-13-11

Race 12:

(4) Journey Home comes out of the G1 Belmont Oaks. She has raced against much tougher than she will face today and should appreciate the class drop. (7) Lovely Bernadette has tremendous late foot and with a good deal of pace signed on should be flying late.

Selections: 4-7

Pick 4 bigger budget starting in race 9:

1,2,6,7/1,3,4,5,7,10/5,10,11,12,13/4/7     $120

Smaller Budget

1,2/1,3,7/5,10,11,13/4,7      $24

Good Luck!

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