Arlington: August 12, 2017, Arlington Million Day Analysis & Selections

Race 1:  8-7-4

This race is impossible to start the day. I recommend sleeping in and getting to the races after this race. That is unless you are interested in playing the early pick 4.  I go to the first time starter for Rivelli on the outside. Richiesonarampage gets a perfect post first time out and Arlingtons top Jockey Jose Valvidia aboard. Rivelli has another in this race Just Blaze who flashed speed in his first two races and now returns to the poly and cuts back in distance.  Im the Best I l Know will most likely be your post time favorite for Wayne Catalano. Catalano owns and trains the 2 year old gelding who was well meant in his first time out a few weeks ago. If playing the pick 4 spread like crazy.

Race 2: 6-7-2-5

Good Bye Greg second off the layoff for Rivelli, has won back to back at this level and distance. He’s the 6/5 morning line and looks logical in this spot. Rivzinthehouse….. HE’S BACK!!! If you’re familiar with Arlington this horse owns the Chicagoland poly. He draws Irad Ortiz and is a great 10/1 morning line price. Western Elegance will be flying late and has improved since returning to the poly. Hunk Burning Love gets Jose Ortiz and has hit the board 4 out of 5 on the Polytrack, but I’m always skeptical of Makers horses at Arlington. Play underneath

Race 3:  5-1-2

A lot of tickets will have the #1 Daddys Boo singled but I don’t think he’s going to get the dream trip he’s been used to the past few times out.  The 2, 3, and 6 all have speed and will pressure the #1. I’ve had the #5 Seeking Treasure circled since his last race, he closed with a rush after a terrible trip from the bug rider. He now gets Florent Geroux who will put this horse where he needs to be to close from the outside.  Triple Chelsea drops in class and has been working great since arriving in Chicago but Santo Sanjur is a head scratcher with all the other major turf jockeys in town.

Race 4: 5-4-3

This will be my single in the early pick 4 as the info on the #5 Savage Battle keeps coming in. There is really nothing much in this field and the owned/trained Chris Block colt will be tough first time out.

Race 5:  6-8-3

Side Pocket is in great from and Jere Smith wins with 17% of his runners who won last time out.  #8 Electrifying  I’ll give one more chance as he has back class that would handle this field. Kyzan #3 has plenty of early speed that could be effective if he’s able to clear the field early.

Race 6:  10-6

Whoa! What a race. Quinta Verde has been away since April but Brad Cox always has his horses ready off the layoff. Irad will sit the perfect trip breaking from the outside and should be tactical behind front runner DreamofJean E.  Dream of Jean E needed his last race when it was taken off the turf and will be on the lead coming down the stretch. Rivelli is 28% second off the layoff.

Race 7:  1-4-3

Finally to the stakes races. Grade 1 secretariat stakes. Afandem has Frankie Dettori aboard who is very familiar with this turf course as he won the Beverly D back in 2004. Afandem ships in from France for trainer Jean Claude-Rouget has had great success with shippers to America. Oscar Performance is the morning line favorite and the one to beat as he will be on the lead on a very speed favoring course and Winner of G1 Belmont Derby last race. Permian will be closinglate but I think would like more distance.

Race 8: 8-7-10

Uncontested finally gets some class relief and will be on the front end for the Wayne Catalano trained horse. Yorkton ships in from Woodbine and gets the perfect post with tactical speed. Society Beau will be flying late for one of Arlingtons best jockeys a few years back James Graham. Must spread race for the start of the pick 5.

Race 9:  1- 2

Keystoneforvictory is my PLAY OF THE DAY. In July on Million preview day this horse put on a show. He was dead last and under a hand ride it looked like he shot out of a cannon to win with plenty of left in the tank. Postulation will have it his own way for the first few turns of the race but moving up in class will have to hold off a calvary charge of graded stakes winning horses.  Taghleeb has to find his form again but has plenty of back class to be competitive today.

Race 10: 4-5-1

The Grade 1 Beverly D. Dona Bruja is a monster and will be tough to beat today as he’s 2-2 since shipping in to the States. If 7-2 holds up it will be a max play for me. Grand Jete is a Chad Brown trained horse and is a must use in this race as he’s 3-3 since coming to the States. Dacita is another Brown horse who is quite obvious when looking on the PP sheet but my only worry with him is the ground he’s going to have to make up in a race with not too much speed.

Race 11: 8-10-5-12-13

The Arlington Million.  Kasaqui was my pick last year in the Million and he’s my pick again this year.  After losing his prep in the Arlington Handicap trainer Correas didn’t seem to worried as his orders to James Graham were to not push all the buttons and still was beaten only by ¾ of a length. Beach Patrol will get the perfect trip and won’t have an excuse when the race ends. Deuville is another Million returner from last year as he finished 3rd. He had no real excuses in that race and will possibly be your favorite going into the gates. Ascend is a horse I played against last time out at Saratoga because I didn’t believe in his win in the Manhattan but he should get a great trip today if he’s able to sit close to the pace and finish like he did in June.

Race 12: Pass

Must spread if ending with Pick 4 and Pick 5s.

 

 

 

 

 

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