Saratoga: August 7, 2017, The Value & The Vulnerable, By Paul Hundley

Well yesterday was atrocious. But, we did identify our 9th vulnerable favorite in a row that lost in Cozzy Spring, in fact she finished dead last! Now let’s get to today.

RACE 1: VULNERABLE FAVORITE ALERT! Right off the bat. 3-Caniform(2/1) was a closing 3rd at this level at Churchill last out, then was claimed by Steve Asmussen from Mike Maker. Mr. Asmussen has only 1 win at the Saratoga meet, which was heavily favored Gun Runner on Saturday’s Whitney. Not only that, he and Irad Ortiz are ZERO for their last 20 mounts together! Also he is carrying co-high weight here at 124lbs. Im torn between two in here. 1-SHINE BRIGHT(12/1) broke maiden last out at Laurel, now ships her for Graham Motion. Not unusual, because Motion has run several at the meet so far. What is unusual is he’s bringing the jock who broke his maiden at Laurel, Ashley Castrenze, who has not ridden at the meet. I really like this move. Also, throw out his two turf routes beginning career, and you have a pretty consistent 3 races on dirt. $5 Win $10 Place $1 Exacta Key Box 1/ALL $14 ticket

RACE 3: VULNERABLE FAVORITE ALERT! 2-Achnaha(9/5) This is only a field of 5, but there’s only 1 horse probably going to show pace here, the 3-GRATEFUL. Yes I realize Achnaha has been facing tougher, but is also 0 for 3 at Saratoga and 0 for 5 at today’s distance. Small play here with 3-GRATEFUL. Playing on top in a $1 Superfecta  3/2,5/ALL/ALL for $12

RACE 4: PASS. Too many MSW droppers here to sort through .

RACE 5: PASS. Field is 0/10 at Saratoga, 0/5 at the 9 furlong distance. It’s sad to see CASTAWAY in a $12.5K level, I still remember him winning a division of the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn in 2012.

RACE 6: Pass. Interested in 2-BARELY IMPAZABLE, but could go favored.

RACE 7: I doubt we get 7/2, but using 5-NONNA MELA here. Makes first start as 3 year old, won a Grade 2 here last year before well beaten in Frizette to end 2 year old season. Has great early speed, but has always sat just on the pace rather than set it. A bit of concern, Pletcher/Castellano zero for their last 20 together! I can’t see that continuing. I’m going to play a $1 Superfecta 5/1,4/ALL/ALL $12

Well that does it for today. I’ll see you all this Saturday for another edition of the V &V!

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s