Saratoga: August 6, 2017, The Value & The Vulnerable, By Paul Hundley

Well yesterday started off rough, but ended ok hitting the late Pick 4 at Saratoga for around $110 on a $16 ticket, which put us breaking even yesterday on our wagers. We identified another Vulnerable Favorite that ran off the board at Laurel, running our VFA horses record to 0 for 8 with just 1 managing a 2nd.

RACE 2: Of the 2 m/l favorites in here, I prefer the 4-Wild and Funny over Pletcher’s charge, Escapade. However, the horse I think represents the value in here is 8-REALITY QUEEN, who is making her turf debut but is the only horse that has raced a mile so far. Mike Maker is 19% first turf and 20% 2nd route race. Last out was up on a very fast pace and still managed to be 2nd, eight lengths in front of the show horse. Playing $5 Win, $10 Place on the 8.

RACE 5: VULNERABLE FAVORITE ALERT!! Look, I’m a big fan of 2-Cozzy Spring, I think she has a bright future, and it may even be on turf. But, is making turf debut breaking from the rail, Charlton Baker is only 1 for last 11 1st turf. Only 7% dirt to turf, and the first turf percentages for the sire and Damsire are ok, but can’t justify 2-1 odds. Then you also have 5% turf Jockey Dylan Davis, who has struggled at this meet. I’m not sure I trust ANYONE in this race, however. So I’ll pass, but honestly, I’d go so far to say the top 3 m/l favorites in here are bad plays on top.

RACE 9: Even though she’s 2nd choice on the m/l, I believe 3-Libby’s Tail goes favored here. Going to play a Pick 3 starting here.   1,3,4,5,8/2/1,2,6,8,11,12 a $24 ticket, which if it hits should be a good payer. The 1-Tasteful made a powerful run last out at Keeneland, getting out of the blocks slow, and beating a field of 11 MSW’s. Curious as to why Rosario is not back on, which leads me to 5-Stormy’s Song. As fellow 5minutestopost contributor Brian Leckie pointed out on Twitter this morning, her work leading into this is to take note of. Fastest work of 122? After crushing in her debut, she got stretched out to a mile, set the pace then tired behind Test runner Divine Miss Gray and next out winner Smile Big. Trainer Brian Lynch is 24% route to sprint and 26% with beaten favorites. And yeah, Rosario opts here.

RACE 10: I got to admit the turf sprint division is probably my favorite in horse racing right now, and I think the reason why is we get to see the top names in the division battle each other during the year instead of waiting for the Breeders Cup. Pure Sensation and Green Mask are the favorites in here, and neither would be a surprise to win. I’m imagining the connections of all involved in here are glad Disco Partner is not in the field! As you Cornell if you looked at my Pick 3 ticket from the previous race, I really like 2-LONG ON VALUE here. Has battled the toughest international turf sprinters his last two, at Ascot and Dubai, which he just missed winning the Al Quoz Sprint. Will need the pace to run at, which hopefully the 3 and 8 will do. $10 Win, $10 Place on 2-LONG ON VALUE, plus a $.50 Trifecta 2/4/all  for $2.50! I may play it 3-4 times honestly.

Well that’s it for today, I’ll see you tomorrow!

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