Saratoga: July 24, 2017, The Value & The Vulnerable, By Paul Hundley

Welcome to day 3 of this column, and day 4 of the Saratoga meet. Well the first two days we’ve identified 4 short priced horses to be wary of, and they are 0 for 4 with 1 second place finish. Unfortunately, haven’t identified the value too much yet, but this meet’s a marathon, not a sprint. The rain has taken races 2,6,9 off the turf, so that kinda changes my original picks.

RACE 1: I think Your Secret’s Safe is very vulnerable, because if you look at his past races under a mile is not his best races. Going really long in this race with 12-BRITISH BULLDOG. Yes 0 for 17, but all were at MSW level, and 7 were on turf. Is 7/10 ITM on dirt. Has never been on an off track but don’t know the exact condition of the main track. Has ran best races at around the 6 furlong distance. Should have plenty of pace to close into. Trainer James Frangella only 1/22 this year, but we saw 1/70 Russell Cash win r2 on opening day. He’s 22% 3rd off the layoff from 23 starters. Like Junior Alvarado on him as well, as he excels in sprints.$5 WIN, $10 PLACE, $10 SHOW, $1 Exacta Key Box 12/1,2,3,4,7,8,10 $14 ticket.

RACE 2: Originally was going to take the higher priced Romans runner but with it off turf will pass.

RACES 3-5: PASS

RACE 6: Love 11-LITTLE DIPPER here. Won debut by 6 lengths at Monmouth after bumping at the start. 2nd place in that race Beaux Arts came back to win opening day here. Nice bullet work leading into this. Trainer Kelly Been 19% with shippers, and he and Paco Lopez 9 for last 18! $5 WIN $10 PLACE $2Ex key 11/2,3,4,5,6,10 $12

RACE 7: PASS, had thought about JULES N ROME but she doesn’t run well on off track.

RACE 8: This stays on turf. If Ruby Notion runs back to her last 3 she should win. However, has not won either try on soft turf, or even hit the board, though one was her only try beyond today’s distance at 1 mile in Juvenile Filly Turf and other was a 5th of 27 at Ascot, which actually is really good. Going with 9-MISS ELLA(8/1), has ran well in both previous starts at Saratoga and has a win and a pair of place finishes from 4 starts at the distance. Won a Grade 3 at Keeneland last October with today’s Jockey Rosa. $5 WIN, $10 PLACE $1 Exacta Key Box 9/1,2,3,4,5,8,12 $14

RACE 9: Off the turf, PASS

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