Was sitting next to Bill (@ThruTheBridle) at Delaware last Saturday and #1 Runaway Train was his best bet of the day. Jockey Alberto Jiminez never sent his horse to the lead, which ruined any chances of winning the race. This horse wheels back in eight days, along with a jockey change to Hector Diaz and a step down in class. As long as Hector sends him to the lead, he’s got a good chance. #3 Don’t Tell Vanessa won her last race by five lengths at this class level, Navarro trains, 6/5 morning line, you know the drill. Isaac Castillo and Navarro are also 7 of 8 ITM in the last month, but have “only” a 50% win rate. #5 Don’s Escapade is another logical contender on Brisnet figures alone, and actually beat Don’t Tell Vanessa two back. But that last race is a head-scratcher. First off the claim for Kathleen Demasi and retains Gallardo.
Joyful Joyful won the last race at Saratoga on Friday at 18-1. Guess who ran immediately behind her with a bad trip in her last race? That would be #3 Epic Lady, who also gets a much-needed class drop to this MC20k level. Also note the neck loss three back in a MC25k. #6 Mandeville has had three solid efforts at this class level and there is no reason why she should not run well again today. #1 Kate ‘n Kerri had an inside-out trip two starts back that produced a second-place finish in a similar field. She should be able to save ground from the inside post and produce a solid effort similar to her previous trips at this class and distance, which have yielded a trifecta finish the last three times.
Monmouth has gotten clever with their condition book to try and fill races. This maiden claiming race is a good example, as it is open to Jersey breds as well as Pennsylvania and New York breds. I’ve noticed that more often than not, the out-of-staters tend to do better than their Jersey opposition. So I’m going to go with NY bred #5 Trevino, though I realize that #3 Valentino’s Day has run some better races and is taking a well-meant step down in class. #1a Rogue Warrior rallied to be second in his last race and had a good workout in preparation for this. #2 Down Market is eligible to improve second time out after a decent debut effort.
I’m not one to play seconditis horses on top, but I’m taking a shot with #6 Postino’s Idol. His only poor effort came four races back at a level just slightly above this one. She’s gotta get off the schneid eventually. Let’s hope that 48.2 workout on July 16th indicates she’s ready to do so. #4 Leriods Mommie has been running very consistent Brisnet figures in the low-mid 70s for quite some time now. She just broke her maiden last out in a $16k maiden claimer under Gallardo, who is aboard once again today. This is another horse who has a penchant for running second, and hasn’t yet been out of the exacta in three starts on the Monmouth turf. #3 Vortex Road has speed figures that are competitive with these and gets some class relief.